Steve Milton: Bombers just don’t seem like the cure Ticats need
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (12-1)
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-9)
Saturday, Sept. 17, 4 p.m.
Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton
The storyline
The Ticats are this close to a lost season and the math in front of them is formidable, if simple. They have to win four - and more likely five - of their final six games to make the playoffs. Facing reigning CFL and Grey Cup MVP Zach Collaros at quarterback, a plethora of clutch receivers, and fearsome defensive ends Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat does not remotely seem like the kind of medicine this ailing team needs. The keys for Hamilton will be to avoid turnovers (40 per cent of the points they've surrendered are directly related to turnovers), keep Collaros from extending plays (which is nearly impossible) and to somehow counter the rushing, lane-clogging ferocity of the Bomber front four. Accordingly, the Ticats are going a little bigger in the backfield with Wes Hills at running back, have reconfigured their offensive line a bit, and will likely use all kinds of quick plays to try to freeze and spread the fast and furious Winnipeg front six. The Bombers haven't lost a game in which they've led at the end of any quarter, so it's important not to fall behind, but they've also rallied to win three times from a fourth-quarter deficit, a function of winning back-to-back Grey Cups. In their 26-12 loss in Winnipeg in Week 3, the Ticats recorded four sacks and trailed only 14-8 at the half, but even back then the Ticats' shortcomings at halftime adjustments - on both sides of the ball - were emerging. Dane Evans, who's battled an injured shoulder for several weeks, is back under centre for the Ticats, with No. 2 Matthew Shiltz returning earlier than reported from his wrist injury. If either can get on a roll and have time to probe an injury-affected Winnipeg secondary, Hamilton has some chance. Evans needs to avoid the interceptions and fumbles that have plagued him all season and has to find a way to generate touchdowns. The Ticats and Bombers have similar offensive yardage totals, but the Winnipeg offence has 38 touchdowns to Hamilton's 20. While the Bombers beat archrival Saskatchewan in back-to-back games, the Ticats were dismal at tackling during two straight losses to the rival Argos, and still have a long list of important players on the injured list. But this has to be the time to overcome hurdles, not succumb to them.
Key Hamilton roster notes
Dane Evans starts at QB, with Matt Shiltz returning from his wrist injury and Jamie Newman as No. 3 ... Wes Hills starts at RB instead of Don Jackson ... DE Julian Howsare is out with injury, and Tre Crawford starts ... Tyrone Riley replaces Travis Vornkahl at LT ... Alden Darby is comes in to back up secondary and linebackers.
Key Winnipeg roster notes: S Brandon Alexander plays his first game of the year ... WR Drew Wolitarsky is on injured list.
They said it
We've got to the point where we've made it so it's the playoffs for us right now. It's a win-or-get-out kind of situation. There's no my bads', no next time.' We have to put everything on the table. It's rough that we put ourselves in this situation." - Safety Tunde Adeleke on the Ticats' need to win most of their remaining six games.
I was frustrated. But why? Working with our team psychiatrist, Dr. Carla Edwards, she really helped me unpack that. I think it's been helping me a lot. I'm starting to feel more like myself, getting back to what I've always done. I don't know if it's a coincidence that once your mind starts feeling better, your body starts feeling a little bit better too. I'm happy with where I'm at right now. It was hard to admit I needed help with my mind. I'll probably continue working with her the rest of my career.." - Dane Evans on feeling refreshed after a bye week, improved condition of his shoulder and sessions with sports psychiatrist Dr. Carla Edwards.
He's progressed very well despite reports earlier (of a four-to-six-week absence). That's not what we heard from our doctors, and he's progressed nicely. Nobody is 100 per cent healthy this time of year but he'll be ready to go if need be." - Orlondo Steinauer on the surprise return of No. 2 quarterback Matthew Shiltz from a broken wrist for Saturday's game.
It's a testament to our coaches and our staff and our front office, building this team up together and making sure everybody meshes together. With the foundation we've set, having the core guys, helps make that transition for the new players, the rookies, easier. We help them to grow up.." - Veteran Bomber cornerback Winston Rose on the injuries, including Brandon Alexander and, now Nick Taylor, in the secondary.
The Numbers Game
0 Points allowed by the Bombers in the final 20 minutes of their last game.
0 Points scored by the Ticats in the final 41 minutes of their last game.
1 CFL rank of Hamilton defence in allowing second-down conversions.
1 Number of times the Ticats have scored more than seven points in a fourth quarter.
4.63 The percentage chance of the Ticats making the playoffs, according to a simulation done by CFL.ca.
6 Tackles needed by Winnipeg LB Adam Bighill to become No. 7 on the all-time CFL list.
9 Number of times the Ticats have allowed more than seven points in a fourth quarter. Four times they've allowed 17 or more.
9 Ticats' CFL ranking in both turnovers committed and turnovers forced.
10 Receiving touchdowns by the Bombers' Dalton Schoen, tops in the league. Nic Demski's five TD receptions rank fourth while the Ticats' Tim White and Steven Dunbar have five each.
26 Zach Collaros touchdown passes are the most in the CFL
43 Touchdowns scored by Winnipeg, most in the league. Hamilton is second-last with 22.
47 Pass knock-downs by the Ticats' defence rank first in the league. Winnipeg is second at 43
66 Tim White receptions lead the CFL.
80 Percentage of successful second-down conversions by the Winnipeg offence in their last game, against Saskatchewan. The Ticats converted 33 per cent in their last game, against Toronto
131 Opposition points attributed to Ticats' turnovers. Edmonton (123) is the only other CFL team with over 100. Winnipeg has allowed just 29 points from turnovers.
439 Pass attempts by the Ticats, most in the CFL. They also lead with 295 completions.
697 Rushing yards by Winnipeg's Brady Oliveira, 15 short of the league lead. Only four players are over 500.
TV: TSN, ESPN+
Audio: Listen.ticats.ca and the Ticats all-access app, Plus simulcast on 900 CHML, 1460 in Guelph, 570 in Kitchener and 'Sauga 960.