Bivalent shots key as COVID expected to start increasing in October in Hamilton
COVID spread in Hamilton is forecast to start increasing in October with the seventh wave peaking in the latter half of December.
At the same time, Hamilton Public Health Services is expecting the return of respiratory viruses like the flu.
The combination is expected to put significant strain on Hamilton's hospitals that are already struggling with unprecedented overcrowding, backlogs and staffing shortages.
The fall respiratory season is anticipated to be a challenging one for both the community and the health-care system," resident physician Dr. Brendan Lew told Hamilton's board of health meeting on Monday.
Public health plans to blunt a predicted wave of hospitalizations by getting as many people vaccinated against Omicron and influenza as possible.
Bivalent boosters that target both Omicron and the original COVID virus became available to all Ontario adults age 18 and older starting Monday. Appointments can be booked at hamilton.ca/GetYourVaccine, 905-974-9848 (option 7), or at the nearest pharmacy.
Kids age six months to 17 will no longer need appointments for COVID shots and can attend city clinics for a monovalent vaccines as a walk-in. Also, Pfizer will now be an option for kids age six months to four years, who up until now could only get Moderna. Mixing Moderna and Pfizer is not recommended for the three-dose series.
Flu shots, meanwhile, are expected to be available to those at highest risk of severe illness starting in October and to the general population in November.
It is important that everyone gets vaccinated to protect themselves and those around them from severe outcomes of the illness and reduce the pressure on Hamilton's significantly strained health-care capacity," public health said in a media release Monday.
Increasing COVID vaccination rates is a tall task considering Scarsin Forecasting has now twice increased its prediction of how many Hamiltonians will be hospitalized in the seventh wave due to lower than expected uptake of shots.
The latest forecast estimates 553 new hospital admissions for COVID from Sept. 19 to Dec. 31 compared to its last estimate of 495 from Aug. 31 to Dec. 31. Both are up from an August forecast of 323.
Even among those most at risk from COVID - age 70 and older - just over 50 per cent are up-to-date on their shots.
Fewer than seven per cent of Hamilton kids age six months to four years have had a COVID shot. While children age five to 11 are now eligible for a booster, only 37 per cent have had two shots.
Coun. Judi Partridge questioned whether some of the issue is access, particularly in rural areas because public health expects pharmacies to give out 75 per cent of COVID vaccines this fall.
Generally speaking, in the rural area, we don't have pharmacies out here," said Partridge. Flamborough has some of the lowest vaccine rates ... We need to really have a good plan going forward."
Public health is considering adding one extra mobile clinic daily - right now there is one that moves locations every day.
It has also extended the vaccine ambassadors program that was supposed to finish at the end of September when funding ran out. It will now continue until the end of December with public health finding resources within the existing budget.
In addition, public health is looking at adding flu shots to city vaccine clinics once they become available.
Vaccine efforts are ramping up as COVID transmission has stopped decreasing in Hamilton and levelled off.
COVID-19 transmission in Hamilton is moderate and stable," stated the weekly update from public health on Sept. 21. The number of reported cases, new COVID-19 hospitalizations, new COVID-19 ICU admissions, test positivity and wastewater signal have all stabilized over the past two weeks."
City epidemiologist Erin Rodenburg stressed these indicators are still elevated."
Overall we expect to see an increased number of hospitalizations leading into these winter months with the peak possibly reaching about 12 new admissions per day," she said.
Hitting 12 hospitalizations a day between COVID and the other respiratory viruses would come close to the peak of the Omicron wave in January 2022, which stressed Hamilton's health-care system to the point that critically ill patients had to be sent out of the area for the first time. Right now, COVID hospitalizations are hovering between one and two a day on average.
Given that the respiratory season has historically continued into the later winter months, it is possible that these increased hospitalizations could be sustained," Rodenburg said about the effect on the health-care system even past the peak of the seventh wave.
The best protection is the bivalent vaccine that will now be given to any adult with at least two prior COVID shots.
The province recommends those most at risk get the booster three months (84 days) after their previous dose. All other adults are recommended to wait six months (168 days), but can choose to get the booster at three months.
To speak to health professionals about COVID vaccines, call 1-833-943-3900 or go to shn.ca/vaxfacts or sickkids.ca/vaccineconsult.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com