Ukraine won back territory and support, but Russia will test the west’s resolve again | Keir Giles

Talk of nuclear escalation or attacks on pipelines may be far-fetched at present, but Moscow has other levers at its disposal

Every human being liberated from Russia's savage occupation represents a victory for Ukraine. But the continuing liberation of occupied territories is vitally important outside Ukraine too. The ejection of Russian forces sends vital messages to Moscow, Washington and Brussels as well, and Ukraine's advances will have broader impacts that are far more significant than the immediate tactical gains.

First, as with the Ukrainian autumn offensive overall, they are a clear demonstration to Kyiv's western backers that the war is not static. Earlier in the year fears of a protracted stalemate were causing hesitation and doubt over whether Ukraine and its supporters could stay the course. Now, Ukraine has removed that doubt by seizing the initiative and maintaining it far longer than most outside observers thought possible. That can only stiffen western resolve to stand firm with Kyiv. In particular it has pulled the rug from under the persistent argument that Ukraine should make concessions" to end the fighting - concessions that in many cases are indistinguishable from surrender.

Keir Giles works with the Russia and Eurasia programme of Chatham House; he is the author of Russia's War on Everybody