NFL Week 5 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

There are a variety of different ways to evaluate your handicapping, with wins and losses being further down the list than you may think - especially when it comes to betting moneyline underdogs. The biggest fear each week shouldn't be that we don't pick the right upsets but that there aren't any upsets available to pick.

In Week 4, just three underdogs of bigger than a field goal won outright. We happened to find all of them while also sitting on a 17-point lead with the Ravens before they stopped scoring and lost. All told, there weren't even five underdogs to be had, and there's no guarantee that there will even be three every week. However, the second significant sign that we're finding good value is that our underdogs are now 14-5-1 against the spread.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - whom we bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Bears +260

A roll call of uncomfortable teams to back starts with the Bears. Justin Fields' lack of pass completions has gotten all the headlines, but this is setting up for the best offensive conditions he'll play in. Even though it's on the road, a game in a dome should make throwing easier than the various rain games and messy fields the Chicago offense has dealt with so far.

We hoped the Vikings would have a fresh modus operandi at the start of the season, but the DNA of playing close games, no matter the opponent, seems ingrained. Of all the teams that are favored by around a touchdown, who do you trust the least to blow a 6-point teaser? Minnesota was gashed by Latavius Murray in London and now flies back across the Atlantic. The Bears have a solid run game, with Fields providing the type of mobile threat the Vikings haven't seen this season outside of Jalen Hurts.

Commanders +115

There's nothing more awkward than backing Carson Wentz for 60 minutes, but after facing the Eagles' and Cowboys' defenses in recent weeks, the Commanders should feel more comfortable. They tallied almost 400 yards against the Jaguars and Lions, which should be a reasonable expectation against the Titans' defense. Tennessee saved its season the last two weeks and is about to head into its bye week, so a slip-up on the road isn't out of the question against a desperate Commanders outfit.

Texans +270

If you don't love backing the Commanders, it's worth remembering that the Jaguars lost to Washington. They caught the Colts (missing Michael Pittman and Shaq Leonard) and the Chargers (with a mangled Justin Herbert) at the best times possible, and the market lost its mind backing Jacksonville.

The Texans are definitely not as good as Jacksonville. But I'm not buying much home-field advantage for the Jaguars, and the Texans have to feel like they can get their first win of the season before their bye week against a division rival they've had success against.

Cardinals +200

It's hard to understand that the 5-point spread is a fair line for a game between a team that everyone loves and one that many seem to hate. But based on previous market ratings, it's a fair line. Kyler Murray's high-variance style means anything is possible offensively, and the Cardinals' defensive numbers are dragged down by getting annihilated in Week 1 when they were shorthanded against the Chiefs.

If you believe in lookahead spots, the Eagles host Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys next week, which will go a long way to decide the division. A trip to the Valley of the Sun might not have their attention in the way it should.

Cowboys +200

The market rating on the Cowboys plummeted when Cooper Rush was forced into a starting role, but we're slowly tiptoeing Dallas back up to where it was rated in Week 1. We don't have to get all the way back to the division-favorite status that the Cowboys had with Dak Prescott healthy in order to find value on Dallas this week.

There won't be any home-field advantage for the Rams with the number of fans cheering on America's Team at SoFi Stadium, and the Cowboys' defensive line and cornerbacks can give Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp trouble. If that's the case, there's nothing that says the Rams are much better than Dallas right now.

Here's how the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
CHI+HOU+WSH	+2700
CHI+HOU+ARI	+3700
CHI+HOU+DAL	+4000
CHI+WSH+ARI	+2100
CHI+WSH+DAL	+2200
CHI+ARI+DAL	+3100
HOU+WSH+ARI	+2200
HOU+WSH+DAL	+2300
HOU+ARI+DAL	+3200
WSH+ARI+DAL	+1800
CHI+HOU+WSH+ARI+DAL	+25000

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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