Norris Trophy Power Rankings: How high is Makar's ceiling?

Welcome to the first edition of theScore's 2022-23 Norris Trophy Power Rankings. New rankings will be published once a month throughout the season.

Note: All stats from 2021-22
xGF% = five-on-five expected goals for percentage

5. Adam Fox, Rangers Jared Silber / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
78	11	63	23:54	50.6

Fox followed up his Norris-winning campaign in 2020-21 with another excellent season in 2021-22, producing at a near point-per-game clip. His underlying metrics took a bit of a hit compared to his previous campaign, but that was at least partially due to the Rangers' poor possession numbers. Fox will again be a serious contender for the Norris if New York can improve its play-driving as a team.

4. Miro Heiskanen, Stars Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
70	5	31	24:53	54.8

Heiskanen's spot on this list may raise some eyebrows, as he's easily the biggest underdog. He's never even reached the 40-point mark in his career, but don't be surprised if he's in Norris contention all season.

The 23-year-old Finn is as smooth a skater as there is in the league. He also defends as well as any blue-liner. All he's missing is the offense, but the ability is there. And now, the opportunity is, too. With John Klingberg departing as a free agent for the Anaheim Ducks in the offseason, Heiskanen will take on a bigger role offensively, which includes quarterbacking the top power-play unit. Realistically, he could double his point total from a year ago.

3. Roman Josi, Predators Norm Hall / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
80	23	73	25:33	52.1

While Josi would've finished second on my ballot a year ago, he comes in at third on the 2022-23 preseason list. This isn't to slight Josi - he's incredible - but very few will argue that the next two players on the list aren't better all-around defensemen.

Plus, it'll be hard for Josi to repeat his sensational 2021-22 season. Entering his age-32 campaign, flirting with 100 points again is a tall task. A lot went right for Josi last year, including career highs with his 8.2 shooting percentage and 9.7 on-ice shooting percentage. He also racked up 37 secondary assists - nearly double his previous best of 21. He may not be as fortunate this time around.

2. Victor Hedman, Lightning Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
82	20	65	25:05	54.4

Hedman may have passed the torch of "greatest defenseman in the world" to No. 1 on our list. However, the future Hall of Famer is still remarkable in his own right. He's 31 years old but hasn't missed a beat. The 6-foot-6 monster seems to be at that sweet spot in his career where he still possesses all the physical capabilities, and he's smarter than ever.

Three straight grueling playoff runs could begin to take a toll on Hedman and other members of the Lightning. We'd be foolish to count out the towering Swede, though. Hedman's been a Norris finalist in each of the past six years, winning twice.

1. Cale Makar, Avalanche Mark LoMoglio / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
77	28	58	25:40	57.6

To answer the headline's question, Makar's upside is a mile high. He's coming off a season in which he won the Norris, Stanley Cup, and Conn Smythe Trophy. What's left for him to accomplish, you ask? How about 100 points and a Hart Trophy? He's more than capable. He's that good.

Those who've watched Makar closely throughout his three-year career know how special he is, but the 2022 postseason was his coming out party for the average fan. He truly dominated, recording eight goals and 21 assists in 20 playoff games. Makar's first step is unfair. His skill is ridiculous. He defends much better than he gets credit for. And he's only 23. What will he do for an encore?

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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