NHL Wednesday best bets: Maple Leafs to beat up on Canadiens
We have the first big slate of the NHL season on our hands Wednesday, with 12 of the 32 teams set to take the ice.
Let's take a look at a couple of teams and a player worth backing.
Maple Leafs (-263) @ Canadiens (+210)This has the potential to be the night's most lopsided game. Last season, the Maple Leafs won the Grade A chance battle 66-33 against the Canadiens, and that was in a year the latter entered with the hopes of being competitive.
That's clearly not the plan for the Canadiens this year. They're embracing a full-fledged rebuild, as evidenced by them taking on some bad contracts and icing one of the worst defense cores you'll see on an opening-night roster.
There are some young defenders with potential. However, the reality is there will be plenty of growing pains along the way, and Montreal doesn't have much in the way of quality, veteran blue-liners to help bring them along.
That's a recipe for disaster, especially against these Maple Leafs. In 2021-22, they ranked second in goals per minute and third in expected goals per minute, across all game states. They also posted the highest scoring chance share in the NHL.
The Canadiens, meanwhile, rank 31st in chance share - only ahead of the Coyotes - and enter this season with aspirations of winning a lottery pick.
If Jake Allen is anything less than spectacular, this game probably won't be close.
Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-114)
Kraken (+102) @ Ducks (-125)The Kraken were a huge disappointment in their inaugural season. I don't think they'll make the playoffs this year, either, but I like their potential to surprise and hang around.
They were defensively solid last season. In fact, they ranked fifth in scoring chances against per minute, sandwiched between the Wild and Avalanche.
Horrendous goaltending - and the inability to erase any deficit with a lifeless offense - proved too much for them to overcome.
While I'm still not sold on the goaltending, I do like the defense, and there's reason to believe they can be a much better offensive side.
The additions of efficient five-on-five producers like Andre Burakovsky and Oliver Bjorkstrand provide them with a lot more scoring punch on the wings. Top prospect Matty Beniers also seems ready for prime time, which gives the Kraken three quality weapons they didn't have for most - or all - of last season.
Those players also push other players into roles more suitable for their skill sets. The Kraken are much deeper up front and the defense remains strong.
If they can get anywhere close to average goaltending, they should be a good team.
While the Ducks should also be improved, I'm not sold on them. They don't have many play-drivers or competent two-way players.
I think they'll be on their heels a lot in this game, and the Kraken's new-look offense should be able to take advantage.
Mitch Marner over 2.5 shots (-150)Mitch Marner is more of a playmaker than a shooter, but he made a concerted effort to put more pucks on net last season, and it showed, especially down the stretch.
Marner quietly piled up the shots on a nightly basis, ranking top 30 in shots from Jan. 1 onward.
He registered at least three in 21 of his final 30 regular-season games, good for a 70% success rate. Perhaps even more noteworthy, Marner faced the Canadiens four times a season ago and generated no fewer than four shots in any of those games.
With the Canadiens expected to be one of the league's worst defensive teams this season, there's no reason Marner can't continue his shooting success on opening night.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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