NFL Week 7 player props: Learning on the fly

Last week's lesson: Don't believe everything you read.

Before Week 6, Doug Pederson said that Christian Kirk needed nine-to-11 targets per game. So we grabbed the over on Kirk's receptions, and Trevor Lawrence targeted him five times. As a result, we fell to 32-28 on the season, still above water.

Christian Kirk over 4.5 receptions (-125)

Apparently, we didn't learn our lesson. Or maybe it's a different lesson? Maybe the lesson is that just because one game doesn't see the fruit of our labor doesn't mean it's not in the Jaguars' plans. Back home, and with a second chance to get a prime playmaker involved, we're getting a better price on backing Kirk to go over.

Jonathan Taylor over 67.5 rushing yards

Prior to his ankle injury, Taylor's lowest prescribed yardage total was 85.5 versus the Chiefs, including 90.5 against the Titans in the game he got hurt. In fact, we were on the under in that game. However, Taylor was a surprise scratch last week, giving him one more week to heal. Assuming he's OK, we'll try the low total on one of the best backs in the game.

Lamar Jackson over 214.5 passing yards

The Browns' pass defense is bad, and it's getting worse - averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, including 7.6 in their last three games. Meanwhile, the Ravens have sent J.K. Dobbins back to the injured reserve list. While they'll still attack via the run game, if Bailey Zappe hit wide-open receivers for 300-plus yards, then Jackson should have plenty of opportunity to do the same.

P.J. Walker under 157.5 passing yards

We cashed with a Christian McCaffrey over last week on the premise that he was the only player Walker was capable of connecting with. Sure enough, seven of Walker's 10 completions went to McCaffrey, who's now with the 49ers. This total is low, but not low enough, especially since Walker didn't finish the game last week and might have a quick hook while dealing with an ornery Buccaneers' defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 71.5 receiving yards

If you were concerned about a pass rush rattling your quarterback, getting back your starting slot receiver would be a good place to start in alleviating pressure. St. Brown's production suffered with Jared Goff's struggles against the Patriots, and he may not have been 100%. After their bye, and with a full week of practice, look for St. Brown to be Goff's outlet in a game they're expected to trail in.

Taylor Heinicke over 13.5 rushing yards

In their meeting in Green Bay last season, Heinicke took off 10 times for 95 yards, leading the Commanders in rushing. The Packers' defense is fifth in the league in sack percentage and took down Heinicke four times in that game. So they'll generate the pressure to flush him from the pocket, where he'll scramble enough to go over this total.

Tee Higgins over 5.5 receptions

Higgins has averaged six catches per game following Week 1, going over 5.5 receptions in three of those four games. We'll let Ja'Marr Chase and A.J. Terrell battle it out on the other side of the field, expecting Joe Burrow to have all the time in the world to find his other starting receiver against the Falcons' ineffective pass rush (last in sack percentage).

Zach Wilson under 183.5 passing yards

Justin Herbert and Matt Ryan needed overtime to get anywhere near 250 passing yards against the Broncos' defense, while Derek Carr and Davis Mills couldn't get to 200 yards through the air. So even though Zach Wilson has cleared this total in two of his three games, this is a different ask.

With Brett Rypien under center for Denver, I think the offense will actually run more efficiently, if less explosively - though it's hard to imagine it being less explosive the way Russell Wilson has looked this season. Fewer possessions and more time taken off the clock will give the Broncos' defense the rest it needs to stifle the Jets' quarterback.

Kenneth Walker over 68.5 rushing yards

If we were into wild, aggressive pronouncements, we might say something like, "Walker might end up being the best tailback in the league." More conservatively, let's say anyone who watched him in college last year knows that he would have been a first-round pick in another era.

Walker has had essentially a game-and-a-half of being the main guy at tailback for the Seahawks and has run for 185 yards on 29 carries. He should be ready for the Chargers' porous run defense on a short week, so look for Walker to run often and for extended lengths of time on Sunday.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 35.5 rushing yards

It's easy to understand why the Chiefs want to run the football from a strategic standpoint. However, it's not working with Edwards-Helaire. Outside of the game against the aforementioned Chargers, he's not productive on the ground in neutral game states. Now he's charged with running into the 49ers' top-ranked run defense while also having other options on his own team breathing down his neck for carries.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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