NHL Monday best bets: Oilers to rebound at home, Burns to fire vs. Canucks

This weekend produced good on-ice results for our best bets. The Lightning (-110) and Stars (-145) both came through with road victories, giving us a clean mini-sweep.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with three more plays - two sides, one prop - for Monday night.

Capitals (+100) @ Devils (-120)

The Capitals and Devils have both picked up three wins early in the season. While the results are similar, their processes certainly have not been.

Washington's five-on-five profile is very pedestrian, with the team controlling just 46% of the expected goal share and 47% of the scoring chances. The underwhelming numbers in those categories stem from an inability to create offense consistently.

Believe it or not, the Capitals have created just 2.14 xG per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, ranking them 27th in the NHL - just ahead of teams like the Sharks and Canadiens. Not ideal.

It's been a much different story in New Jersey. The Devils have steamrolled teams at full strength, leading the league in shot attempt share, chance share, and expected goal share as a result. They're generating a ton while allowing very little.

That's not new to the win streak. Despite dropping the first two games of the campaign, the Devils still outshot their opponents by 30 in that span. The biggest difference - they couldn't get a save while the opposition could.

A stout defense has helped the cause - the most shots the Devils allowed over the last three games is 22 - but Mackenzie Blackwood appears to have righted the ship, conceding just four goals in that span.

With stars like Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Dougie Hamilton tilting the ice in New Jersey's favor each time over the boards, all the Devils need is half-decent goaltending to get wins.

New Jersey's getting it right now, and I like that to continue against a Capitals team that is struggling to create chance volume.

Bet: Devils (-120)

Penguins (+105) @ Oilers (-125)

Considering expectations and the fact they have played all five games at home, the Oilers are off to a somewhat disappointing start.

Edmonton's underlying numbers suggest it's not exactly time to panic. The team has controlled nearly 54% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five - seventh best in the NHL - and we all know how lethal the Oilers are on the man advantage.

If the club can play well at five-on-five, the Oilers will win a lot of games moving forward.

I think this is a nice price to back them for a rebound. Although the Penguins have won four of five, and their numbers are popping off the page, it's worth noting they've already played the Coyotes, Habs, and Blue Jackets. Oh, and their date with the Lightning came against Brian Elliott. The schedule's been pretty soft.

A road game against Edmonton is a pretty stiff test, especially without Jake Guentzel in the mix. The star winger has produced 43 goals and 89 points since the beginning of 2021-22 while mostly riding shotgun with Sidney Crosby.

Rickard Rakell is a nice player to have in your back pocket and move up, but he's nowhere close to Guentzel's caliber. Losing that level of firepower stings, particularly when going up against a team featuring two of the NHL's most dangerous players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Look for the Oilers to respond and get two points against a Penguins team that, while solid, probably isn't as good as they look on the surface.

Bet: Oilers (-125)

Brent Burns over 2.5 shots (-105)

Brent Burns is off to a terrific start with the Hurricanes. He has piled up 37 attempts with 18 shots on goal through five games, both of which lead the team.

Burns has also logged no fewer than 22.5 minutes in any game thus far. He is clearly an ultra-efficient shot generator, so getting that kind of usage allows for a very high shooting floor, as we've seen in the early going.

The Canucks have a very pedestrian blueline, they're giving up goals in bunches, and the team looks completely disjointed each time out.

There will be breakdowns, and Burns is not someone who will hesitate to jump up and get involved in the play when they happen.

Look for Burns to bounce back from his worst shooting game of the young season last time out and generate good volume.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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