NFL Week 8 teasers: Buying the 1-score game

The world of teasers started Week 7 with an epic backdoor cover for Saints (+8.5) legs and ended with the destruction of what seemed like the best option of them all: the Patriots (-2.5). In between, the Ravens, Cowboys, Raiders, and Bengals all seemed tough to trust in avoiding an upset, but each won outright, though not without their moments of doubt.

The highlight of the week was the opportunity in the Jets-Broncos game. Early in the week, the Jets were a viable teaser leg when Denver was a favorite of under a touchdown. After Russell Wilson was gradually ruled out, and the Jets became the road favorite, Broncos teaser legs of +7.5 or better became available. Both sides of those optimal numbers cashed.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Bengals have moved to 3.5-point favorites at the Browns on Monday Night Football. Teasing Cincinnati would bring the spread through zero, wasting valuable price points around an improbable tie.

Teasing the Browns up to +9.5 seems appealing, as it would get the key numbers through a touchdown, but you're already winning on a 3-point margin at a -110 price. Getting +6, +7, or +8 over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike to -270.

Let's use the short point spread in the NFL's return to London on Sunday morning, where we can use the Broncos and Jaguars (-2.5) as an example of the value of teasing a short underdog up.

The pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of -3, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Broncos' alternative spread (+8.5) is priced at -375, which is obviously a much larger price than getting them at +8.5 with our teaser leg at -270.

To get a good deal on the Broncos (+8.5), we must pair them with another game and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 8:

The ebbs and flows of the NFL schedule are amazing. Last week, we had a loaded list of touchdown favorites ripe for a tease down, and just a week later, there are no such options to be found. The Cowboys are -9.5, and if bettors back the Bears to the point where sportsbooks drop the line to -8.5, Dallas becomes the only option to tease down.

The good news is that there are at least five options to tease up over a touchdown. Four of the five teams listed above are home underdogs, with the aforementioned Broncos being a neutral site option.

Teaser players will have to ask themselves: Who are the most likely teams to give up that extra possession that stretches a one-score game to two-scores? The Colts were a prime teaser leg last week, as the Titans' offense only mustered 12 points. But a Matt Ryan pick-6 turned the game and was the difference between a nine-point Titans win and something in the area of a one-score finish.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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