NFL Week 8 betting takeaways: The challenge of covering a big number
It seems like every time you watch the Bills, the offense is easily moving down the field while the defense is hitting so hard that opponents are hobbling off. Yet any team with a point spread over 10 is vulnerable to the backdoor cover.
Three Week 8 games - Bills-Packers, Cowboys-Bears, and Eagles-Steelers - featured double-digit spreads. While only Buffalo couldn't cover, you'd most suspect Aaron Rodgers to score a backdoor touchdown in a pass-only situation over Kenny Pickett or Justin Fields.
It isn't easy to get a big lead, keep it, and finish the game, so Dallas and Philadelphia should get more credit than simply "taking care of business." However, it's not like anyone's downgrading the Bills for only winning by 10 points.
How ratings workWe look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this season. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.
Rating before Week 8 kickoff| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 85 | 70-85 |
| Chiefs | 70 | 65-80 |
| Eagles | 68 | 50-75 |
| Buccaneers | 66 | 50-80 |
| Ravens | 62 | 55-70 |
| 49ers | 62 | 50-70 |
| Cowboys | 62 | 40-70 |
| Bengals | 61 | 50-70 |
| Dolphins | 57 | 45-70 |
| Rams | 56 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 56 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 56 | 45-65 |
| Patriots | 56 | 40-60 |
| Packers | 55 | 50-65 |
| Raiders | 53 | 40-60 |
| Cardinals | 52 | 40-60 |
| Colts | 44 | 40-60 |
| Jaguars | 44 | 30-50 |
| Jets | 42 | 30-50 |
| Browns | 42 | 40-65 |
| Titans | 41 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 41 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 41 | 30-45 |
| Falcons | 39 | 30-50 |
| Commanders | 39 | 30-50 |
| Giants | 39 | 25-50 |
| Broncos | 39 | 30-60 |
| Steelers | 38 | 35-50 |
| Lions | 37 | 30-50 |
| Bears | 33 | 30-45 |
| Panthers | 30 | 20-45 |
| Texans | 29 | 20-40 |
Oddsmakers tried to warn us before Thursday night. Had the Buccaneers closed as 2-point underdogs to the Ravens, which is where they re-opened, their rating would be somewhere in the low 50s. The market refused to believe it, though, betting Tampa Bay back up into the role of favorite, limiting the team's drop. Will that change this week before the Bucs' divisional-round rematch with the Rams, who are due for a further downgrade of their own?
Christian McCaffrey's addition means the 49ers can now play the odd game without Deebo Samuel and not suffer much in the short term, which is why that line didn't move much around pick'em.
The Bengals got an artificially big boost from beating up on Atlanta at home in Week 7 despite losing Ja'Marr Chase, and you saw how well that worked out for them Monday night.
Closing -3 on the road at the Jets means the Patriots didn't get downgraded for getting smoked by the Bears six days earlier, which was odd. Had the Jets gotten better quarterback play, they would've covered, if not won. Astute handicappers will downgrade the Pats despite the victory, and their opponent may have value this Sunday.
If you were trying to get downgraded, you'd play exactly how the Raiders did in New Orleans. However, the Saints' win says more about them finally putting it all together. You should see New Orleans get quite an upgrade with a Monday night home game in the Superdome on the horizon.
The Cardinals' rating is still frenetic with hopes that DeAndre Hopkins makes everything all better for Kyler Murray, but this is still a team doing just enough to get beat. With that being said, a muffed punt is the reason they didn't at least cover in Minnesota - which has a rating that seems set in cement at this point - and how can you predict special teams catastrophes?
The Titans were this week's team to get dropped because their starting quarterback was out, and yet again, it didn't matter. Their division rival, the Colts, had the same issue and didn't get downgraded much at all. If there was ever an example of the coin-flip nature of covering spreads in the NFL, Indianapolis went from covering as a -3 favorite to losing outright on one excellent catch by Terry McLaurin.
Ironically, the Seahawks and Broncos are both headed upward, with two different paths to get to league average. The Panthers saw their rating improve before their wild game in Atlanta and should keep moving up, leaving Houston in its rightful place as the NFL's worst team.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.