Abortion might help Democrats in the midterms in two major ways | Laurel Elder, Steve Greene and Mary-Kate Lizotte

If young pro-choice voters turn out in higher numbers than forecast models are expecting, it could provide a bounce to Democrats in key races

Political science-based forecasting models offer a clear prediction for the 2022 midterm elections - the results will be very bad for Democrats. Based solely on the fundamentals like the state of the economy, the type of election (ie midterm) and having an unpopular Democrat in the White House, a model by political scientists Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck, generated months before 8 November, predicts a 44-seat loss for Democrats in the House and a five-seat loss for Democrats in the Senate.

The forecasting models produced by FiveThirtyEight are not quite as grim about the prospects for Democrats, predicting that the party will most likely lose majority control of the House of Representatives, but have a small (and shrinking) edge in holding on to their minuscule advantage in the Senate. Unlike the political science models, FiveThirtyEight's predictions also incorporate polling data and therefore pick up on the ground-level reality that Republicans have put forth weak candidates in key races.

Laurel Elder is a professor of political science at Hartwick College

Steven Greene is a professor of political science at North Carolina State University

Mary-Kate Lizotte is a professor of political science at Augusta University