NFL Week 9 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

Crank up the 1980's AC/DC hit "Back in Black!" A 3-0 sweep on last week's against-the-spread plays, a teaser winner, and avoiding some of the bad beats that plagued us in recent weeks helped drag us back to even on the season.

Realistically, those who've entered the market at widely available numbers are more than breaking even so far, as we essentially start fresh for the back half of the season.

BET TYPE	LAST WEEK	SEASON (units)
ATS trio	3-0 (+3)	12-10-2 (+1)
ML upset	-1	5-3 (+6.6)
Totals	-1.1	2-6 (-4.6)
Teasers	+1	3-5 (-3)
TOTAL	+1.9	0

Best bets ATS

Raiders -2

Last week in New Orleans was ugly. So ugly that the Saints' shutout of the Raiders should be considered an outlier when evaluating Las Vegas. It hasn't stopped early money from coming on the road team, as this line is up from an open at pick'em. The Raiders stayed on the road, arriving in Florida no later than the Jaguars did after returning from London.

One reason the Raiders' fiasco might be a one-off is the rumors of flu-like illness going through the locker room last week. It's hardly a coincidence that Davante Adams would miss practice mid-week and then have the worst game of his career.

Going into their next contest healthier - and more focused after being humiliated - the Raiders will return to playing their usual close game, which will appropriately match the Jags' tendency to cough up a victory.

Lions +4

Speaking of an inability to close games, we have to consider the Lions to win outright, but it's far more likely they come close but falter. That would be fine as this line has climbed to -4, equaling the market's point of view of the Dolphins' visit to Detroit last week. Based on what we've seen from each team this season, does it make sense that the Packers are on the same plane as Miami?

Miami pushed the closing point spread last week, so there's no reason to believe that line wasn't fair. I have this game lined under three points, so anything above a field goal has to be a bet, given there's no reason to believe the Packers can take advantage of the Lions' suspect pass defense the way solid teams like the Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots, Cowboys, and Dolphins have.

Buccaneers -3

This is more about fading the Rams and less about backing the Buccaneers - Tampa at least has the mini-bye after playing on Thursday night in Week 9. As long as none of the NFC South teams can take the division, the Bucs will continue to have hope. They've also got some revenge on their minds after the Rams knocked them out of the playoffs last season.

On the field, at 5.5 yards per play against, the Rams don't have the defense they had when they shut down the Bucs for a half in the NFC Divisional Round, and if Cooper Kupp isn't 100%, they won't have any semblance of an offense, period.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Panthers +280

We discussed this game at length in the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay, but at +280, this is worth a shot on its own. The Bengals have run the ball functionally in just one game all season, and their inconsistent pass-blocking lends itself to high-variance results - a bad thing for the favorite.

Defensively, Cincinnati lost Chidobe Awuzie for the season with an ACL tear, and its cornerback depth chart is getting as thin as it was against the Falcons when PJ Walker went off for 8.8 yards per pass attempt. If they can avoid careless turnovers, the Panthers can move the ball, and the Bengals might not be able to keep up with a pretty vanilla attack.

Best total bet

Colts / Patriots under 40.5

Points may be very hard to come by in New England, which is one reason we're trying the Colts in the RR MLP. While I think this game is a true toss-up, it's worth acknowledging that Sam Ehlinger may have issues with Bill Belichick's game plan. The Colts, though, are a top-10 defense in opponent's yards per play - metrics accumulated despite missing some key pieces throughout the season so far. We could be heading for a field-goal fest on Saturday.

Best 6-point teaser

Bills -5.5 / Saints +8.5

We have to hand in our "sharp bettor" card for this, but the Bills were a last-minute cut from an ATS bet above. Now that they've moved to -11.5, you're receiving full value for a six-point teaser. You're now getting the possible six-point winning margin at -5.5, and you're at least protected by a backdoor cover.

I'd pair that with Monday night's game and the probability that the Saints play a one-score game with the Ravens in a meeting between two sides that haven't pulled away from or gotten blown out by basically anyone.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.