NFL Week 10 player props: Using usage from morning to midnight

Like your fantasy football team, the weekly player props are supposed to supplement your betting Sunday. Another 4-6 effort shouldn't be as frustrating as it is, but watching players like Rachaad White unable to get a play call that uses his speed is more than a little annoying. We've fallen under .500, so while last season's epic results are likely out of reach, we can look forward to getting back in the black and will have fun doing it.

Tyler Lockett under 59.5 receiving yards

If the Buccaneers don't want to evolve what they do on offense, we'll have to rely on the quality of their personnel on defense. With Antoine Winfield returning Sunday, Tampa's secondary is fully healthy. The Bucs only gave up one big play last week - a long Cooper Kupp touchdown. With Akiem Hicks back as well, Tampa's defense should return to dominating up front. DK Metcalf can win one-on-ones, but Tyler Lockett needs more time to get open. He'll struggle with that in Germany.

Najee Harris over 42.5 rushing yards

We've targeted Harris unders in this space before, but a bye week should have allowed the Steelers tailback to get healthier. Pittsburgh's investment in the first-rounder should also mean he'll still get a starter's worth of carries. This is the lowest Harris has seen his rushing yards lined, but it's the easiest matchup he's had as far as run defense and potential game script are concerned.

Trent Sherfield over 13.5 longest reception

Sherfield spent last season in San Francisco but didn't do much, catching just nine passes. He's already doubled that this campaign with Mike McDaniel in Miami. After being used sparingly early, Sherfield is taking advantage of being wide open while defenses scramble to know where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are. He's caught a pass for 14 yards or more in the last four starts by Tua Tagovailoa.

Trevor Lawrence under 36.5 pass attempts

As 9.5-point underdogs, the assumption is Lawrence will have to throw a lot while trailing, and 36.5 is the highest attempt total we've seen all year for him. However, the Jaguars trailed 17-0 last week, and he threw just 31 passes. In the games where Lawrence has gone over, it was because the Jags' opponent had quick drives giving Jacksonville plenty of opportunity in close games. The Chiefs will take more time on their drives, and Doug Pederson won't panic, using the Jaguars' new workhorse, Travis Etienne, to sustain their own drives.

Davis Mills under 206.5 passing yards

The word is out on the Texans' star rookie running back, Dameon Pierce, as his total is over 80. Given his combination of power and speed, why wouldn't you just give him the ball to take advantage of the Giants' bad run defense instead of having Davis Mills throw through the rain and wind of New Jersey? Plus, Mills' home-road splits suggest he's far more comfortable indoors.

Russell Wilson over 13.5 rushing yards

Wilson's had a week off to get in some high knees on dry land. That's helpful if you're making a concerted effort to run the ball more, which is what Wilson admitted after pulling out a Week 3 win when he finally started scrambling late. He's been over this number in the four games since, and there are murmurs that the Broncos will deploy the up-tempo offense that helped them win in London. The Titans are missing key defensive starters, so Wilson should get lost and loose for a big gain.

Justin Fields over 59.5 rushing yards

This could fall under the category of too obvious, but even Aaron Rodgers had 40 yards rushing against the Lions last week. Like many of the best running quarterbacks, you need to see Fields a few times to gauge his size, speed, and willingness to take off. This version of Fields will still surprise their division rival with all the designed runs the Bears have added to the mix since they last met.

Sam Ehlinger under 28.5 pass attempts

We don't need to break down the numbers in this game because who could assume logic or execution with these two teams' coaching situations? Instead, we'll buy into a narrative.

Interim head coach Jeff Saturday said he's happy to "take the points" and doesn't care for making mathematically correct decisions using analytics. There's also a famous clip of him arguing with Peyton Manning during their playing days about running the ball more. Peyton Manning.

We'll guess that Saturday has told first-time play-caller Parks Frazier not to get crazy with Sam Ehlinger and hand the ball off repeatedly, especially with Jonathan Taylor on track to play.

Dalton Schultz over 32.5 receiving yards

Schultz got hurt in Week 2 and tried to fight through injury for two more games before taking Week 6 off. In the two contests before last week's bye, with Dak Prescott back, Schultz has 11 catches for 123 yards. A favorite target of Prescott, this total is using Schultz's stats when neither player was healthy.

Jimmy Garoppolo under 241.5 passing yards

When your ball-carrier depth chart includes Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, and Deebo Samuel, and you're facing the worst run defense of the last two years, why would you ever throw the football? A seven-point spread suggests the 49ers should be running the clock out late. Instead of guessing tailback usage for the 49ers, we'll bet against Garoppolo's usage.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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