Russia’s loss of Kherson signals change in Putin’s strategy

Ukraine's step towards victory presents challenges, but demonstrates what can be done with a steady supply of western support

The Russian decision to withdraw from the Ukrainian city of Kherson to defensive positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River was driven by sound military logic. Russian control of the city could only be maintained at a steep price in troops and materiel. Operationally, the withdrawal should help the Russians stabilise their defensive positions over the winter. Strategically, the withdrawal is an unambiguous Russian defeat.

When Ukraine launched its counteroffensive against Kherson at the end of August its military knew it lacked the combat power to storm the city. However, strikes on the bridges over the Dnipro limited Russia's ability to supply its troops with heavy equipment, while the river protected Ukrainian forces from counterattack. This favourable battlefield geometry allowed Ukraine to create a killing area in which its artillery could inflict heavy casualties on Russia's most motivated and competent units.