NFL Week 10 betting takeaways: A wild lead-up to even wilder games
Week 10 was wild - and I'm not even talking about the games on the field.
The availability of Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Ryan Tannehill fluctuated point spreads leading up to kickoff. As a result, the team ratings based on the closing lines of the games are all over the map this week.
How ratings workWe look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this season. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.
Rating before Week 10 kickoff| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 76 | 50-75 |
| 49ers | 74 | 50-75 |
| Chiefs | 73 | 65-80 |
| Bills | 72 | 60-85 |
| Cowboys | 62 | 40-70 |
| Ravens | 57 | 55-70 |
| Vikings | 57 | 45-65 |
| Buccaneers | 56 | 50-80 |
| Dolphins | 54 | 45-70 |
| Bengals | 54 | 50-70 |
| Patriots | 54 | 40-60 |
| Chargers | 53 | 45-65 |
| Rams | 51 | 40-60 |
| Browns | 51 | 40-65 |
| Raiders | 48 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 46 | 30-50 |
| Saints | 45 | 40-60 |
| Commanders | 45 | 30-50 |
| Cardinals | 44 | 40-60 |
| Jaguars | 44 | 30-50 |
| Jets | 42 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 42 | 30-50 |
| Packers | 41 | 40-55 |
| Titans | 41 | 40-60 |
| Colts | 40 | 35-55 |
| Giants | 39 | 25-50 |
| Broncos | 39 | 30-50 |
| Bears | 39 | 30-45 |
| Steelers | 38 | 35-50 |
| Lions | 36 | 30-50 |
| Panthers | 31 | 20-40 |
| Texans | 26 | 20-35 |
The Bills did their best to hide that Allen would play - even having him sprint off the practice field Friday before the portion open to the media. A spread that opened Bills -8.5 went down to -3 through the week and closed up at -6.5 by kickoff. None of it mattered as the Vikings won outright in what's widely considered the game of the year. The -8.5 indicated a small downgrade coming off of the Bills' loss to the Jets in Week 9, and the fact that it didn't get back up over a touchdown showed a combination of concern over Allen finishing the game and a pile of defensive injuries. As such, the Bills' rating dropped as low as it has all season. It should bounce back into the high-70s if there are no residual issues for Allen before Buffalo hosts the Browns.
The Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers skipped ahead of the Bills even though Kansas City took a small downgrade from struggling against the Titans, which created a tiny buy-low spot against the Jaguars. NFL betting can be so tight that had the Chiefs stayed at their previous rating, they'd have been at least -10 to Jacksonville and thus wouldn't have covered. Neither the 49ers nor Eagles covered, which shouldn't be a surprise given they've seen a big boost in the last couple weeks. Both should see a dip back down, putting Buffalo back into the top spot.
The Buccaneers' rating suffered a big drop, which has been our biggest red flag this season. If a team plummets without a quarterback injury, it's probably an overreaction. That said, had the game in Germany been lined longer than a field goal, the market would have bet the Seahawks even more than it already did, but Tampa -4.5 was probably a more appropriate line.
The Ravens didn't play last week, but looking ahead to their game with the Panthers, a 12-to-13-point spread suggests a massive upward move. Beware.
Someone will have to sit me down and explain slowly what the market either liked about the Browns or didn't like about the Dolphins. Cleveland took money all week, which opened up a ton of value on Miami.
With John Wolford and Colt McCoy set to duel in L.A., the market flat-out guessed the value of each. It gave too much credit to Wolford and not enough to McCoy.
The Packers saw their rating plummet early in the week, only to slowly move back up as they moved from +5 to +3.5. That seemed to potentially be an appropriate adjustment until they stormed back to beat the Cowboys.
With all these teams plummeting week to week, the market just doesn't do much with the Raiders - unless that's masked by them playing (and losing to) teams in disarray. The Colts weren't great, but they were good enough under head coach Jeff Saturday, and more importantly, with Ryan at quarterback. The point to which they move back up this week will decide whether there's value on Indianapolis as a home underdog to the Eagles on Sunday.
The Panthers will see a tick back up after beating the Falcons convincingly, but the interesting question relates to how you view their value with Baker Mayfield versus PJ Walker; which quarterback is more likely to keep them in a game they're supposed to get blown out in?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.