NFL Week 11 teasers: Searching for options to pair with a prime pick

The teaser basket rolled Sunday, as there wasn't a loser to be had out of the six choices we pinpointed last week. Then we got a case of "the Mondays" in Philadelphia. We tried expanding our teaser parameters, and while it worked perfectly with the Texans in New York, the previously trustworthy Eagles finally flunked a test.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Ravens are 12-point favorites at home to the Panthers. Teasing Baltimore would capture some key numbers around a touchdown. But if the Ravens win by anything less than a touchdown, that's a loss for us. The alternative point spread of Baltimore -6 is priced at -250, which tells you that a teaser leg of -270 isn't valuable at all.

Teasing Carolina up to +18 seems appealing. However, if you're worried about the Panthers losing by 13-18 points, you should be concerned about them losing by 20. Getting +13 to +18 over a big sample size isn't worth the price hike to -270.

Speaking of alternative spreads, Josh Allen appears healthy enough, and a spread of -8.5 against the Browns this week shows that the Bills' rating has taken a hit after two straight losses. That means there may be value on Buffalo in general. An 8.5-point spread also suggests a prime opportunity to pull the Bills across key numbers to under a field goal. Comparative pricing gives us an example of how teasing Buffalo is valuable.

The pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of -3, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Bills' alternative spread (-2.5) is priced at -333, which is much higher than getting them at -2.5 with a teaser leg at -270.

To get a good deal on Buffalo (-2.5), we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 11:

Well, there's certainly not much to choose from this week, is there?

There are only five games with 3-point spreads this week. On top of that, the underdog is widely available at reduced juice. A +3 at +100 is less teaser-worthy than a +3 priced at -120 since the teaser leg price of -270 is fixed.

Here's how:

With the disparity on +3 pricing, you'd have to win five more teaser legs out of every 100 to be profitable versus just taking the +3 on the underdog.

We're expanding teaser parameters on one game: Bengals-Steelers. We're doing that because we have a pretty strong understanding of the capabilities and limitations of both teams and the heightened probability of a competitive game between division rivals. The home underdog - with T.J. Watt back in the fold - is a good bet not to get blown out.

Why aren't we expanding the parameters for the other game lined in no man's land between three and six? The Rams are +4, but with quarterback uncertainty and Cooper Kupp removed from the equation. They could win outright, but they also shouldn't be relied on not to get blown out.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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