NFL Week 11 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

You'd feel pretty good about an under with two backup quarterbacks leading offenses to a paltry 4.6 and 4.3 yards per play, given the league average for that metric is 5.5.

You'd have to feel pretty good about an under 41 with 37 total points and three minutes to go with John Wolford 75 yards away from the end zone.

But a meaningless touchdown pass with seven seconds left sent our well-handicapped bet from the cash pile to the garbage can, as Cardinals-Rams landed on the league average of 44 points despite no defensive touchdowns and meek offensive production. A profitable Week 11 in this section turned into a virtually break-even effort, adding another entry to the bad beat list, with comfortable wins on our teaser and two of three on spread bets.

BET TYPE	LAST WEEK	SEASON (units)
ATS trio	2-1 (0.9)	15-12-3 (+1.8)
ML upset	-1	5-5 (+4.6)
Totals	-1.1	3-7 (-4.7)
Teasers	1	4-6 (-3.2)
TOTAL	-0.2	-1.5

Best bets ATS

Patriots -3 (-120)

We'll pay the extra 10 cents of juice here to make sure we get the push on a three-point Patriots' win, but I doubt we'll need it. The Jets have taken money this week, presumably based on the idea that they won the boxscore in the first matchup and they were a roughing-the-passer penalty away from a two-score lead in a low-scoring game. I tend to think the Jets just blew a rare opportunity for a win over their onetime (for one day) head coach Bill Belichick.

With both teams off their bye week, I trust the Patriots' staff to do more with the additional preparation time, particularly on offense. They won't need to make many adjustments to torment Zach Wilson, but they've likely focused on scheming open receivers for Mac Jones (whose ankle should be healthier).

Saints -3 (-115)

How much does Cooper Kupp mean to a point spread? With Matthew Stafford expected to start, the market seems to believe the Saints are -3 at home, compared to the pick'em listed in the lookahead before Kupp was injured. However, between the fact that Kupp has accounted for 34% of the Rams' yardage and the emotional element of seeing the writing on the wall for a lost season, the Rams' rating arguably isn't low enough. The Saints are what we know them to be, but there's a very strong chance the Rams are much worse than the market thinks.

Bills -8

The Bills might have advocated for this game to be moved into a dome. The irony of them playing in Buffalo is that, stylistically, this team is built to perform better in a controlled environment. Don't believe me? The line was -8 before the venue change, and it's barely moved with the shift indoors.

We happily bet the Dolphins against the Browns last week because we didn't share the market's apparent belief that Cleveland's defense could hold up in a potential track meet. It couldn't, and neither could the Browns' offense. This sets up in a similar way. Maybe the Browns can run the ball well enough, but we'd rather side with the high-octane pass attack.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Colts +250

We need to reframe our perception of the Colts. They were disappointing to start the season because the market believed they were division favorites and dark-horse Super Bowl contenders. Then Sam Ehlinger replaced Matt Ryan and they hired Jeff Saturday, so their rating plummeted. Now that Ryan's back and the coaching hire might not matter much, there has to be some middle ground in their rating - especially since Ryan's now surrounded by a full complement of healthy skill players.

Even with all the noise around the team, Indianapolis has a good run defense. Despite playing Derrick Henry (twice), Josh Jacobs, Dameon Pierce, and Travis Etienne (twice), and often in a trailing game state, the Colts have allowed the second-fewest yards per rush. That will come in handy against the Eagles - on a short week off of a loss, Philadelphia might want to rely on its run game.

Best total bet

Chiefs / Chargers under 52 points

Taking the under on a Patrick Mahomes-Justin Herbert matchup may not sound smart, but neither quarterback has access to the explosive talent that they've grown accustomed to. Derwin James can be a problem for Travis Kelce, while Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster are likely unavailable for K.C. Herbert might get Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back, but are we convinced they'll make it through 60 minutes? Both teams know what to expect from the opponent, so Sunday night's score shouldn't be eye-popping.

Best 6-point teaser

Raiders +8.5 / Bills -2

As much as we like the Bills against the spread, the teaser leg should be pure gold. With the market unwilling to give us the full field goal with the Raiders, we'll bump them up over eight points and dare the atrocious Broncos offense to score enough points to cover -8.5.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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