NFL Week 12 teasers: The more you know

Know your sportsbooks' rules. It's one of many standard pieces of advice doled out in the sports betting industry, but it only comes in handy occasionally. The Bills were -8 throughout last week, setting up -2 as the most prime of teaser legs. Then the NFL moved the game, and most sportsbooks voided all bets on Buffalo, even though the line didn't change on re-open after the venue switched to Detroit.

When it comes to teasers, the Bills-Vikings matchup probably should have been voided entirely since the premise of the bet is that you're only allowed the price on one leg because you're parlaying it with another. However, some sportsbooks didn't void the bet. You would be sitting with Vikings +8 around a price of -270. While it doesn't feel like that's what you signed up for, it's an important reminder that teasers are parlays, and parlays still have individual outcomes at a certain price. Had the bet been voided, it would've saved bettors a loss when Minnesota got rolled. But if you liked a Minnesota teaser, you probably would have found something else to pair it with and lost anyway.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Dolphins are 13-point favorites at home to the Texans. Teasing Miami doesn't even fully capture a touchdown. The alternative point spread of Dolphins -7 is priced at -225, which tells you that a teaser leg of -270 isn't at all valuable.

Teasing the Texans to +19 might seem appealing. However, if you're worried about them losing by 14-19 points, you should be concerned about them losing by 20. Getting +13 to +19 over a big sample size isn't worth the price hike to -270.

Let's use the short point spread in a game no one needs to watch on Sunday. We can use the Broncos' (-2.5) visit to the Panthers to exemplify the value of teasing a short underdog up.

The pricing significantly jumps once you move across -3, the key number, from -110 at +2.5 to -175 at +3.5, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, Carolina's alternative spread (+8.5) is priced at -385, which is much higher than getting the team at +8.5 with a teaser leg at -270.

To get an incredible deal on Panthers +8.5, we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 12:

The Cowboys are toggling between -8 and -9 in the market as of this writing, with those sitting at -9 doing so to protect against getting teased under a field goal.

No matter who plays quarterback for the Panthers, their teaser leg has to be really good, given what we've seen from the Broncos' offense and the consistently good performances from the Carolina defense. The team's defensive unit single-handedly kept the Ravens within reach, allowing the Panthers to cover a point spread despite scoring just three points.

Titans +2.5 has shown up in the market, but this line should react to whether Ja'Marr Chase is ready to return for the Bengals.

The Eagles are up to a flat 7-point favorite at home to the Packers, moving up from -6.5. With Philadelphia's moneyline priced at -320, moving them to -1 at -270 has excellent value since the chances the Eagles take this contest by one is less than the 3.2% difference this suggests - and even that result would end in a push.

Speaking of line moves, the market quickly reacted to the Steelers-Colts opening line, deciding that Indianapolis can't be a full 3-point favorite. If oddsmakers think that, imagine how they feel about the Colts winning a game by nine or more points.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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