Hart Trophy Rankings: A shooting Star soars up the leaderboard

The NHL's MVP race continues to take shape, with nearly two months of action in the rearview mirror. The legitimate Hart Trophy candidates are solidifying their cases, but one particular player has rocketed up the rankings with his otherworldly exploits.

Most contenders have posted gaudy numbers so far this campaign. But more importantly, the award is all about the immense value they provide to their clubs, and that's what voters will ideally consider at season's end.

Here are our top five MVP candidates at this point in the campaign.

Expected goals for percentage, goals saved above expected, and goals saved above average figures in charts are at five-on-five

5. Ilya Sorokin Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	Record	SV%	GSAx	GSAA
19	10-8-0	.927	13.5	7.67

The New York Islanders are among the NHL's worst teams in terms of xGF% and have the second-most expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. In other words, they're not controlling play, and their defense has been uncharacteristically suspect. The Isles' offense is also mediocre, which is customary in this era.

Despite all that, New York occupies fourth place in the Metropolitan Division at 16-11-0, and Sorokin is the biggest reason for that. The Russian goaltender is the current Vezina Trophy favorite, and his standout performance should also garner him some Hart consideration.

Sorokin's record doesn't accurately reflect his dominance. The 27-year-old boasts elite underlying numbers and stellar counting stats even though his teammates haven't given him much help. That's truly an indicator of value, and Sorokin's provided it in spades.

4. Jack Eichel Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
26	13	16	18:46	60.2

Eichel doesn't have eye-popping conventional numbers this season like some of his contemporaries, but posting over a point per game so far is commendable. The Vegas Golden Knights center's worth comes through most in the analytics, and those figures are strong enough to make him a Hart candidate. That was true a month ago, and it hasn't changed despite a new contender emerging to knock Eichel down a spot.

The ex-Buffalo Sabres forward leads the NHL in both wins above replacement and goals above replacement. He ranks top 20 league-wide in five-on-five xGF% among players with at least 300 minutes in those situations, and only the No. 1 name on this list has done better among the skaters mentioned here. Additionally, the Golden Knights have controlled a favorable 54.08% of the scoring chances with Eichel on the ice at five-on-five.

Eichel's production relative to his teammates cements his status as a Hart hopeful. The 26-year-old leads Vegas in points by seven this season despite playing two fewer games than the next six players below him. The Golden Knights have very good goaltending, but Eichel's consistency is mainly why they sit comfortably atop the Pacific Division.

3. David Pastrnak Steve Babineau / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
25	18	18	19:54	56.9

Speaking of netminding, Linus Ullmark has been terrific for the Boston Bruins. But Pastrnak has been the most valuable weapon for the club leading the NHL in points percentage.

The pending unrestricted free agent has collected seven more goals and 15 more points than the closest Bruins skaters (Taylor Hall and Patrice Bergeron, respectively) while leading the team's forwards in average ice time. Pastrnak has logged over a minute more per contest than the closest teammate, Brad Marchand (who missed time post-surgery), and nearly two minutes more than Bergeron, who's played the same number of games as his Czech teammate.

Pastrnak has also stayed hot since the last edition of these rankings. The 26-year-old has notched 10 goals and seven assists over the past 14 games, including nine tallies in his last eight contests. Contract years are historically great motivators, and while Pastrnak doesn't need one to play at a high level, his significant on-ice value this season is undoubtedly driving up his eventual price tag.

2. Connor McDavid Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
27	24	28	22:43	52.88

Any time McDavid's not in first place on these lists - which is rare in recent years - he has to be wondering, "What more do I need to do?" The two-time MVP leads the NHL in goals, assists, and points while topping the league in the latter by a considerable margin. He leads all NHL forwards in average ice time, and his underlying numbers are favorable.

Unlike the top dog below, McDavid has 2020 Hart winner and fellow game-changer Leon Draisaitl leading his supporting cast. McDavid has proven his importance to the Edmonton Oilers' success regardless of Draisaitl's contributions, but the German center sits second in the Art Ross Trophy race, with a remarkable 40 of his 44 points (91%) coming by either goals or primary assists this season.

McDavid's underlying figures are barely in the favorable range compared to the others listed here, which is surprising. One player can't impact team performance in hockey like they can in other sports, but seeing Edmonton sit fifth in the Pacific by points percentage doesn't help McDavid either. He remains a prime MVP candidate, but another player currently has a stronger case.

1. Jason Robertson Glenn James / National Hockey League / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
27	23	18	18:02	60.46

Robertson set the bar high with a 41-goal, 38-assist effort last season, but he's on pace to sail over that bar and has pushed himself to the forefront of the Hart race. The Dallas Stars forward was previously an unlikely contender, but now there's no shortage of evidence to support his candidacy.

For starters, the 23-year-old reeled off an 18-game point streak that set a Dallas record and fell two contests short of the franchise mark. Robertson piled up more than a goal per contest and nearly two points per game during his white-hot run from Oct. 27 through Dec. 4, registering 21 goals and 13 assists in that span.

But a point streak alone doesn't make someone an MVP favorite - Robertson has scored more than twice as many goals and posted nine more points than the closest Stars skater (Roope Hintz with 11 and 32, respectively). He's one tally behind McDavid for top spot in the "Rocket" Richard Trophy race with the same number of games played, and his 17 even-strength goals lead the NHL, meaning he's done 74% of his scoring at even strength.

The American winger sits fifth in the league in SCF% among qualified skaters, as the Stars have controlled 63.24% of the scoring chances with Robertson on the ice at five-on-five. Robertson ranks eighth in the NHL in individual expected goals at five-on-five compared to McDavid at 47th. Robertson is tied for 32nd in xG per 60 minutes in the same situations, while McDavid's tied for 220th in that category.

The MVP race is about more than just point production and ice time. Robertson's superior analytic figures and success relative to his teammates put him over the top for now, but this should make an intriguing debate for the rest of the season if he keeps it up.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.