MNF best bets: A coaching clash between the Patriots and Cardinals

Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there'll always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.

It's not the hottest Monday night matchup in the Valley of the Sun, but that's what betting is for. The Patriots have a much better claim to playoff contention than the Cardinals, but is that enough reason to make New England the favorite, given that it's lost two straight games - both in prime time? Or is it a coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and Kliff Kingsbury that has bettors more interested in the Patriots?

We'll listen to the case for Belichick's advantage right up until we realize Matt Patricia is calling plays on offense opposite solid Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. And what's Belichick's reason for having Patricia call plays despite Mac Jones' apparent dissatisfaction? It's too late to have someone else do it. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

All the jokes about Kingsbury's late-season record have to do with his stint at Texas Tech, where the Red Raiders' schedule was weighted to the back end. Last year's Cardinals got attention for starting the season on a seven-game win streak, but they were never as good as that small sample size suggested. Plus, once Deandre Hopkins was out of the lineup and Kyler Murray returned from his own injury hobbled, Arizona was playing with one hand tied behind its back.

The Cardinals' early-season 2-4 record - which coincided with Hopkins' suspension and Marquise Brown going down - actually looked like their late-season record usually does. But both are back and healthy, coming off Arizona's late bye. A week of rest should have Murray at his most mobile, ready to take advantage of a Patriots defense whose numbers were propped up by replacement-level opposing quarterbacks until successively running into extremely capable QBs in Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen.

New England couldn't cover indoors against the Vikings or outdoors at home against the Bills. Arizona seems to be a step down from those opponents, but the coach's reputation ends up overrating the Patriots as much as it underrates the Cardinals.

Pick: Cardinals +2

Kyler Murray over 35.5 rushing yards

Murray has averaged 41.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 and has had 36 yards or more in five of his last six contests. So why is this total so low? It's the credit continuously given to the Patriots' defense this season and the idea that Belichick will take away what the Cardinals want to do.

That might be the case with Hopkins, as it's easier to double-cover a star receiver. However, New England has already faced two explosive running quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson ran 11 times for 107 yards early in the campaign, and Justin Fields later carried the ball 14 times for 82 yards. The Patriots' defensive personnel may be incapable of keeping up with Murray, who's been more willing to take off this late in the season.

Hunter Henry longest reception over 15.5 yards

It's a Cardinals game - by rule, we have to investigate the opposing tight end for a big game. Arizona is easily the NFL's worst team at defending the tight end, allowing 6.9 receptions for 73.3 yards per game.

Noah Fant's led the Seahawks in receiving yardage twice against the Cardinals, as did Dallas Goedert (8 receptions, 95 yards) and Tyler Higbee (8 receptions, 73 yards). Tight end luminaries such as Tommy Tremble and Juwan Johnson each had receptions over 15.5 yards. Both Darren Waller and Foster Moreau had 19-yard catches in Week 2. You don't even want to know how Travis Kelce shredded this defense in the season opener.

Before a rough outing against the Bills in Week 13, Hunter Henry had a 20-yard reception in six of his previous seven games, so we'll hope he joins the illustrious company of tight ends to burn the Cards in the desert.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.