Rise of Open-Source Intelligence Tests US Spies

China outpaces efforts by U.S. intelligence agencies to harness power of publicly available data. From a report: As Russian troops surged toward Ukraine's border last fall, a small Western intelligence unit swung into action, tracking signs Moscow was preparing to invade. It drew up escape routes for its people and wrote twice-daily intelligence reports. The unit drafted and sent to its leaders an assessment on Feb. 16, 2022, that would be eerily prescient: Russia, it said, would likely invade Ukraine on Feb. 23, U.S. East Coast time. The intelligence shop had just eight analysts and used only publicly available information, not spy satellites and secret agents. It belonged to multinational chemicals company Dow, not to any government. "I'm leading an intelligence center that accurately predicted the invasion of Ukraine without any access to sensitive sources," said John Robert, Dow's director of global intelligence and protection, whose unit helps the company manage business risk and employee safety. Supercharged by the Ukraine war, the rise of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, which comprises everything from commercial satellite imagery to social-media posts and purchasable databases, poses revolutionary challenges for the Central Intelligence Agency and its sister spy agencies, according to former senior officials who spent decades working in those agencies' classified spaces. Dow is just one of a fast-growing number of companies, nonprofit groups and countries transforming publicly available data into intelligence for strategic and economic advantage. China has the largest, most focused effort, while U.S. spy agencies, with deeply ingrained habits of operating in the shadows, have been slow to adapt to a world in which much of what is important isn't secret, according to dozens of officials and many studies.

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