NFL Week 15 teasers: Highs and lows

In Week 13, Lamar Jackson went out early, which probably prevented the Ravens from covering -2.5 in legs teased down. On Monday night, Kyler Murray was injured on the third play from scrimmage, and it's hard to convince me that the Cardinals wouldn't have scored more than 13 points if he hadn't gotten hurt.

Vikings teaser legs also went down, but in a different way. Minnesota-Detroit was a good example of the difference between a 2.5-point spread in a game with a high total versus one with a low total like Baltimore-Pittsburgh. The Vikings game always felt close, but its loose nature resulted in the Lions winning by more than one score, whereas the Ravens' six-point lead seemed insurmountable for the Steelers.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, Week 15's Thursday nighter has the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites on the road in Seattle. Teasing San Francisco would bring the spread through zero, wasting valuable price points around an improbable tie.

Teasing the Seahawks to +9.5 gets the key numbers through a touchdown, but you're already winning on a 3-point margin at a -110 price. Getting +6, +7, or +8 over a big sample size isn't worth the price hike over -270, especially since you're not even getting a push with +10.

The Steelers and Panthers have regularly played low-scoring contests, and this Sunday, they meet in a tightly lined game. We can use Pittsburgh's visit to Carolina (-2.5) to exemplify the value of teasing a short underdog up.

The pricing significantly jumps once you move across +3, the key number, from -110 at +2.5 to -175 at +3.5, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, Pittsburgh's alternative spread (+8.5) is priced at -350, which is much higher than getting the team at +8.5 with a teaser leg at around -270.

To get an incredible deal on Steelers +8.5, we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 15:

A few games could find their way into the basket. If the Ravens move to +2.5 for Saturday's game in Cleveland, it will likely be due to a clean bill of health for Tyler Huntley. At that point, getting the Ravens at +8.5 would be very valuable. Meanwhile, the Eagles are an eyelash away from being tease-able. They're widely available at -9, but should that fall to -8.5, a six-point tease would take Philadelphia down under a field goal. Lastly, the Titans are an interesting bet at +3 against the Chargers, but if that dropped to +2.5, or stayed at +3 with heavy juice, then we'd grab them on our way to the checkout.

The Dolphins are banged-up with hobbled receivers, Tua Tagovailoa has started to struggle, and Miami will play its third road game in a row in potentially grim weather conditions as the Bills host. The spread has moved across a touchdown, but is still vulnerable to a teaser.

There's all kinds of murkiness at quarterback in the matchup between the Cardinals and Broncos. Arizona obviously won't have Murray and Russell Wilson may not be available for Denver, leading to a potential matchup of Colt McCoy and Brett Rypien. What we can expect is a low-scoring game, which makes every point valuable, and getting 8.5 points with either side would be worth a bet.

On Monday night, the Packers host Baker Mayfield and the Rams. While Mayfield's impromptu performance Thursday was remarkable, somehow pulling out a victory, a road win in Green Bay would be a next-level accomplishment - one worth betting against.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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