NFL Week 15 player props: Wishing for the best 'over' the holidays

A 6-4 Sunday in the prop game in Week 14 could have been better. George Kittle got the early looks from Brock Purdy against the Buccaneers and was over his modest yardage total by halftime. We thought he'd get a screen pass, and he did, except it was sniffed out for a 5-yard loss, and Kittle's yardage went from over 30 yards to under 30 yards. Our quest to salvage a profitable season continues as we've crept back above .500.

Jonathan Taylor over 81.5 rushing yards

The Vikings' defense is bad. While those brutal metrics are mostly against the pass, that might manifest itself in longer Colts drives Saturday. Longer drives mean more opportunities for Jeff Saturday to give the ball to his best player - Jonathan Taylor. Twenty-plus carries in each of the last four games have led to 80-plus yards, so we'll bet on him to make it five in a row.

Deshaun Watson over 216.5 passing yards

Whether it's an increase in comfort in his third game back or another series of dopey decisions by the coaching staff and teammates, Watson could be in a position to throw for more yards than the market expects. The Browns won't be able to run as easily against the Ravens as they'd like. Baltimore's given up just 3.8 yards per carry this season and a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry in their last three contests. The Browns shot themselves in the foot in Cincinnati, and it put them in a trailing game state, meaning Watson was forced to throw more than hoped.

Stefon Diggs over 74.5 receiving yards

You say there's snow; I say there are depressed offensive point and yardage totals in the betting markets. Diggs is the most reliable target for strong-armed Josh Allen, and he's also the Bills' best route-runner, which makes him particularly hard to cover if you're a Dolphins defensive back needing to start and stop with unsure footing.

Justin Fields over 67.5 rushing yards

Fields and the Bears' offense had a bye last week, and that's the only reason we didn't bet on him to hit the 70-yard mark with his legs. He's cleared that hurdle in six of his last seven games, and we'll keep betting it until somebody stops him.

Sam Darnold over 13.5 rushing yards

With T.J. Watt bearing down on me, I'd be quick to run for my life too. In his second game back last week, Darnold took off for a long rush and kept the opposition guessing occasionally on read-option carries. One or two of those keepers with Watt or another end crashing, and the deceptively mobile Darnold could get loose.

Desmond Ridder over 24.5 rushing yards

Ridder is just as mobile as Marcus Mariota, so the Falcons don't lose anything with their rookie quarterback in a dual-threat capacity. In fact, he likely has less of a grasp of the offense than the veteran incumbent, so an extra scramble may be in order when Atlanta draws up the rare drop-back pass. The Saints have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks at 24.23, and those QBs haven't all been as fleet as Ridder.

Zonovan Knight anytime touchdown (+110)

The undrafted rookie stepped in three weeks ago and has led the way for a Jets run game that's needed to fill the void left by fellow first-year Breece Hall. Knight has had 14, 15, and 17 carries, finally scoring a touchdown last week in Buffalo. Against a vulnerable Lions defense, the Jets should be able to move the ball, giving Knight at least one opportunity as the first option for a goal-line carry.

Tom Brady over 275.5 passing yards

The only reasonable way this doesn't go over is if the Buccaneers blow out the Bengals and Cincinnati has no offense. Why? Because as long as this is played in a neutral game state, the Bucs should find success throwing. With Trey Hendrickson out with a wrist injury, Tom Brady should have time to throw. With slot corner Mike Hilton also likely out, Brady's most reliable target, Chris Godwin, should have a big game as well.

Derrick Henry over 13.5 receiving yards

The expectation is that Henry feasts against the Chargers' league-worst run defense. However, as we saw (and successfully bet on) last week, when Ryan Tannehill starts, the Titans throw to Henry more this season than ever before. Henry went over easily with 34 yards on three receptions off of five targets.

Isaiah Hodgins over 34.5 receiving yards

Three games ago, on Thanksgiving, we took a shot on Hodgins to score a touchdown at long odds. He did, but it was called back on a debatable ineligible player downfield penalty. Naturally, he's scored in each of the Giants' two contests since. Hodgins has also quietly gone over modest yardage totals in all three games where he's gotten at least 70% of the snaps, something he's in line for Sunday night.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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