Key takeaways and analysis from Week 15 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Jags here to stay Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

All aboard the Jaguars bandwagon.

It's been a bumpy ride in Year 1 under Doug Pederson. There have been just as many downs as there have been ups, with numerous moments making it seem like a true return to playoff contention was still at least another year away. Well, forget that. The time is here.

Following up a magical comeback win over the Ravens with a blowout loss to the Lions seemingly threatened to derail any hopes the Jaguars had of making a late run. But they bounced back with a convincing win over the Titans last week before edging the Cowboys on Sunday in their most impressive performance yet.

Key to it all was Trevor Lawrence continuing his run of stellar play. The second-year quarterback outplayed counterpart Dak Prescott for much of the game, throwing for 318 yards and recording four touchdown passes for the first time in his career. As we saw in the comeback win over the Ravens, the poise required to lead his team back late was everything we thought we'd get from the former No. 1 overall pick.

A patchwork Jaguars defense did its part, too. The unit made several timely plays to get Dallas off the field, a big stop to give Lawrence one more chance to tie it up late in regulation, and, to cap it off, Rayshawn Jenkins' pick-6 won it in overtime.

Jacksonville's recent offseason moves have reeked of desperation, with free-agent deals for Jenkins and Zay Jones, among countless others, being seen as overpays. Don't look now, but Jenkins' two-interception day was by far his best game with the Jaguars. And although Jones didn't really have much left to prove on that front, having thrived as Lawrence's WR2 throughout the season, he terrorized the Cowboys for three touchdowns.

The defense still isn't very good, and that's unlikely to change until it can add talent in the offseason. But if that unit can continue to make a few plays here and there, stealing extra possessions for what is suddenly a potent offense, this team can hang with anyone in the AFC playoff picture. And with Tennessee in the midst of a four-game slide, Jacksonville may just get an opportunity to prove it.

Now 6-8, the Jaguars sit just one game back of the Titans and control their own destiny. They already beat their AFC South rivals in their first matchup, and the second game will be the Week 18 finale. Close out the season with wins over the Jets, Texans, and Titans, and they're division champs.

It's too bad Urban Meyer doesn't watch NFL football. His old team is officially fun as hell.

Lions chasing playoffs Al Bello / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We've been over this enough already - the Lions are legit. Consider them the NFC version of the Jaguars, except perhaps even better. It was always going to be difficult for them to dig themselves out of a 1-6 hole, but they just may do it.

Sunday's win over the Jets - the latest step in confirming everything we all wanted to believe about this team - gives the Lions wins in six of their last seven games, getting them back to .500 at 7-7.

Still left on the schedule are games against the Panthers, Bears, and Packers. Not to get Detroit fans too excited, but those should all be victories with the way this team is playing right now. Sweep the finish, and things start getting really interesting in the NFC.

With the Giants (8-5-1), Commanders (7-6-1), and Seahawks (7-7) all playing their own brands of mediocre football of late, and with each team finishing the year with far more challenging opponents, 10-7 should be all the Lions need to get into one of the last two wild-card spots.

If you're the Vikings or 49ers, the Lions are not who you want to see on Wild Card Weekend. Their offense has found the perfect formula to maximize all the talent in place on that side of the ball. Their defense, for all its faults, has quietly been trending in the right direction and starting to pull its weight.

The Lions are still playing the long game here. The future is the priority, and all indications are that they've got the right people in place to finally build a sustained winner in Detroit. Any playoff success this year would be a bonus.

But this team is going to be the darling of the NFL playoffs if it can finish the job and lock up a spot. Who won't be pulling for the Lions to get their first postseason win since 1991?

Dolphins ready for January Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The big story from Saturday's nightcap was Josh Allen going into superhero mode and leading the Bills to a huge win in the snow. It was the star quarterback's best game in over a month, silencing some recent questions about the Buffalo offense, and a reminder of just how unstoppable this team can be.

But was anyone really doubting that the Bills would figure it out? They'll be a top Super Bowl contender for as long as Allen continues to dominate while breaking all the conventional rules of playing the position. Nothing new here.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, had something to prove in this one. And while the result didn't go their way in the end, making it three straight losses after an 8-3 start, we should all be feeling pretty good about Miami heading into the playoffs.

As much as football analysis can tend to overrate the impact of weather, it was only natural to wonder whether this was a team that would fall off a cliff in the snowy elements. The Dolphins' offense is built on big plays in the passing game, ranking second only to the Chiefs in explosive gains through the air (20-plus yards), and Tua Tagovailoa hadn't exactly fared well in previous, albeit limited, cold-weather games. Miami also runs the ball as infrequently as any other team league-wide.

But good teams make adjustments when necessary. That's exactly what the coaching staff did from the opening snap, getting Tagovailoa out of the shotgun and making a point of leaning on the under-center run game.

The result was 188 rushing yards against Buffalo's top-five run defense, and rather than a high-volume approach to the passing game, the Dolphins were able to pick their spots to attack downfield. In the end, Tagovailoa still connected on five explosive plays, just one short of matching a season high.

With the Dolphins seemingly destined for a wild-card spot - and faced with the possibility of road games against the likes of the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals - proving that they can go shot for shot with a Super Bowl favorite in less-than-ideal conditions is a meaningful statement.

This team is going to be a tough out in January, no matter where the game is played.

Vikings make history Adam Bettcher / Getty Images Sport / Getty

You know all about this one by now. Somehow storming back after trailing 33-0, the Vikings knocked off the Colts to break the record for the largest comeback in NFL history. There are two polar-opposite ways you can look at this outcome, and neither would necessarily be wrong.

First and foremost, it was an incredible second-half performance from Minnesota. The Vikings' defense stepped up to keep the game within reach, and the offensive playmakers took over to lead the comeback. Once they got a few scores on the board, it felt like they were only playing against the clock; afforded the necessary time, the Colts weren't going to do much to slow them down.

The other way you can look at this, if you're not so inclined to get swept up in the fun, is that being down 33-0 to the Colts is just confirmation of why the Vikings are hard to believe in.

The results have been undeniably great: An 11-3 record has locked up the NFC North and makes the No. 2 seed Minnesota's to lose. And as we saw in the scoring spree, you can only contain the stars on this offense for so long before they inevitably break through. But the Vikings have felt more like pretenders than contenders for much of this year, and requiring a historic performance to beat the Colts doesn't really change that.

Needing perfection from your offense to overcome all else, as was the case in the second half Saturday afternoon, isn't a recipe for success in the playoffs against defenses like the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys.

In fact, they'll need better across the board to even get to those games. With the Lions trying to chase down that last wild-card spot, and a potential third matchup with their division rival, the Vikings could even have their hands full in the first round.

Quick slants

Bucs melt down

Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Sunday's game against the Bengals couldn't have started much better for the Bucs, going into halftime with a 17-3 lead over a team that has eyes on returning to the Super Bowl. After the break, though, it couldn't have gone much worse. With a failed fake punt, an interception, and then back-to-back fumbles, Tampa Bay turned it over in its own territory on four consecutive possessions. Cincinnati capitalized with 24 points on those opportunities, building a two-score lead by early in the fourth quarter and effectively putting the game out of reach. It remains a travesty that this team, or perhaps another NFC South club, is going to get the honor of hosting a playoff game.

All-time blunder

Surely you've seen it by this point. If not, do yourself a favor and go watch the Patriots losing to the Raiders in the most hilarious way imaginable. Rather than settling for overtime on a final play going nowhere, Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers started a lateral play. But Chandler Jones picked off Meyers' effort to launch the ball back across the field, stiff-armed a helpless Mac Jones to the ground, and took it back for the walk-off touchdown. Football is a wild game - nobody is immune to this kind of lowlight. But to see the Patriots lose in this manner, after an entire generation of fans grew up knowing them as nothing other than a dynasty, was strange to process. That it at least temporarily bumped them out of the playoff picture is only fitting.

Wilson steps in

Mike White's absence forced the Jets to turn back to Zach Wilson against the Lions after two weeks on the bench. On the surface, a 317-yard, two-touchdown performance looks like the kind of game the Jets have been waiting for from the former No. 2 overall pick. There were indeed a few big plays, to his credit, but this was another day filled with mistakes and missed opportunities - the quarterback position once again kept the Jets from a better result. If White can't return in time for Thursday's game against the Jaguars, the Jets should seriously consider going to Joe Flacco. Even when he's avoiding the circus turnovers, and flashing with the occasional big throws, Wilson just leaves too many plays on the field. Why bet on that in a game that could go a long way toward deciding your playoff fate?

McKinnon the playmaker

Carmen Mandato / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The more the Chiefs cycle through different options at running back, the more it becomes clear that Jerick McKinnon is their guy. He'll never be a high-volume ball carrier, meaning the numbers will never quite stand out on a season-long basis, but he does everything you could possibly want from a backfield running mate for Patrick Mahomes. He racked up 122 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in Sunday's win over the Texans, including a 26-yard run to win it in overtime. Isiah Pacheco is more than deserving of a role as the lead ball carrier, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will get some work when he returns from injury, but McKinnon's ability as a receiver, not to mention his underrated upside as a slashing runner, has earned him the right to lead that group in snaps when we get to the playoffs.

Ridder struggles

Arthur Smith resisting playing Desmond Ridder until the games no longer mattered for his team is suddenly starting to make sense. The third-round rookie had a debut to forget in Atlanta's loss to New Orleans, completing half of his 26 attempts for just 97 passing yards and no touchdowns. The running game kept the Falcons in it, going for 231 yards on the day, but getting next to nothing from their young quarterback was ultimately the difference in the three-point loss. Looking back at the calls for Smith to bench Marcus Mariota while the Falcons were still in playoff contention, perhaps it's important to remember that the coaching staff knows far better than us whether the backup has done anything in practice to deserve the starting job.

Chargers on their way

It wasn't pretty, but the Titans don't like to make anything easy for their opponents. The important part is that the Chargers got this win against the best team on their remaining schedule, clearing the way for them to really take off down the stretch. L.A. is now 8-6 and sitting comfortably in the second of three AFC wild-card spots. With games against the Colts, Rams, and Broncos up next, there's no reason this team shouldn't finish 11-6. And with the Ravens sputtering, that could be enough to give them the No. 5 seed and a first-round matchup with whoever ends up winning the AFC South. With Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, and Derwin James all on the way back, the Chargers have a chance to make some real noise.

Stat of the week

The last time Tom Brady's offense turned the ball over four times in one half: October 28, 2001. That was 371 starts ago.

- Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 19, 2022

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