TNF player props: Flying under the radar with Jaguars, Jets

Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"You cannot abandon people in an airport pickup. It's a binding social contract; we must go forward, not back." - George Costanza

Season 4, Episode 11 is set almost entirely on either a plane or in an airport, with Jerry and Elaine returning from St. Louis. Like that city having an NFL team, this episode is of a bygone era, with many obvious tells of the pre-TSA and pre-smartphone era it was set in.

George bet Jerry $50 that he could jump and touch the awning out front of Jerry's building. To wipe out the debt, he offered to pick Jerry up at the airport. However, without cell phones and the internet, it became a bigger challenge than anyone expected. In a throwback to Thursday night matchups of the past, the Jets - with their own obvious flaws despite putting together a surprisingly good campaign - host the resurgent Jaguars in a more interesting battle than we may have thought.

'The Airport'

Zach Wilson is back at quarterback, but, like George in his effort to perform the perfect airport pickup, the Jets' second-year signal-caller keeps having issues connecting with his primary targets. Looking at the prop menu, we'll eye Jacksonville's offense to save us from losing a few bucks, with a more realistic bet than Costanza made with Jerry.

Since their trip to London, the Jaguars' offense has clicked. Trevor Lawrence has a QB rating of over 100 in five of six games.

GAMES	STATS
1-8	62.5% comp / 1840 yds / 10 TD / 6 INT
9-14	70.4% comp / 1680 yds / 14 TD / 1 INT

Basically, since Week 9, Lawrence has been the first-class ticket Jerry opted for - the football version of enjoying a warm towel, slippers, wine, and a hot fudge sundae. He survived his own "coach" - in the form of Urban Meyer - after dealing with the metaphorical middle seat of rookie season development. Like Elaine, Lawrence didn't know any better.

You had a better chance of hopping on and off an airplane in the 90s than you do of going up and down the field on the Jets' defense without some creativity.

JaMycal Hasty is the Jaguars' backup tailback, but he's made enough of an impression on Doug Pederson that James Robinson became expendable. With a usual workload of 13-to-18 snaps, the Jags draw up specific plays for Hasty, who runs like he's trying to catch a flight. He's had a carry of 10-plus yards in three straight games, and if anything happens to Travis Etienne, Hasty's the first in line for more volume.

Pick: JaMycal Hasty over 7.5 rushing yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

George grabs the last "Time Magazine" just before a felon who's being transported. Getting there first didn't end up paying off for George, who got tackled by the criminal into an airplane washroom. It's a less risky proposition, but we'll anxiously grab the Jaguars' best receiver to score at his longest price of the season.

Christian Kirk is nearing 1000 yards, but he hasn't scored in his last four games after tallying seven touchdowns before Thanksgiving. There's no indication that his usage has changed, with 38 catches on 55 targets in his last six games. Sauce Gardner might be chasing him harder than Kramer going after his former roommate for $240 in rent owed, but Kirk is capable of winning some of those battles, saying, "Listen to the bell Gardner, it tolls for thee," as he hauls in a score.

Pick: Christian Kirk anytime touchdown (+220)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

"I never met a man who knew so much about nothing." - Tia, Jerry's seatmate in first class.

This season has been a series of close calls on our long-shot touchdowns, as we saw a ball graze the hands of last week's pick in the end zone. So it definitely feels like we know a lot about nothing in this category.

Braxton Berrios had his most targets of the season last week, and 12 of his 31 targets on the season have come this month. Berrios dropped a potential game-winning pass in Minnesota three weeks ago, so the veteran is still being trusted on key plays, even though he doesn't have a touchdown catch this season. Berrios does have four rushing touchdowns since this time last season, so there's at least another way he could find the end zone.

Pick: Braxton Berrios anytime touchdown (+550)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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