Hamilton’s forced urban boundary expansion happened fast — how quickly will new homes follow?

Christmas tree farmer Jim Watson suspects he got an early hint that Hamilton's controversial forced urban boundary expansion was coming.

The 73-year-old was surprised to get three purchase offers in a single day for his popular Glanbrook tree farm in the middle of October. At the time, his 69-acre farm on White Church Road was in Hamilton's so-called whitebelt" of rural land off-limits to mass development.

But a few weeks later, the Progressive Conservative provincial government stunned Hamilton with an order to pull 5,436 acres of rural countryside into the city's legally developable urban area. Somebody seemed to have known something ahead of time," he suggested in an interview that month.

Now, despite a city council preference to build up rather than out, would-be developers are snapping up properties all over Hamilton's former whitebelt lands.

Trevor Vanderwoude said he has been approached informally about selling his family-owned, 230-acre sod farm just north of Watson. We're kind of undecided at this point," said Vanderwoude, whose family bought the land in 1985.

Realtor Conrad Zurini noted a flurry of activity" in the aftermath of the expansion order - in some cases literally the next day" - including three recent sales in the White Church Road area.

Some well-known builders like Aldo DeSantis have played the long game, holding formerly undevelopable farm properties in Elfrida since the 1990s in anticipation of an eventual boundary expansion. In fact, four big developers already owned more than a thousand acres in the Elfrida area as of last year, a Spectator property review showed.

But now other developers are paying top dollar to catch up - up to $240,000 an acre for recent purchases in the Twenty Road area.

Watson says he knew his land could become valuable someday, but he is not ready to talk about whether he will sell. I thought I would stay here until I ended up in the ground," he said with a chuckle. I thought we would stay here forever. It's a beautiful place."

It appears some land is changing hands quickly in the aftermath of the urban boundary expansion order - but does that mean bulldozers will quickly follow?

Not necessarily, say both city officials and critics of urban sprawl' into Hamilton's increasingly scarce farmland.

A lot of work - in some cases years of planning studies, land-use blueprints and infrastructure upgrades - are needed before shovels can go into the ground in many former whitebelt areas. It would take a while for them to start building houses in some of these areas," said chief city planner Steve Robichaud.

In the meantime, opponents are mobilizing to try to delay the digging.

The expansion order from Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Steve Clark on Nov. 4 was a resounding rejection of the city's citizen-supported pitch to freeze the urban boundary and grow within the existing urban footprint.

Last year, city council dismissed a recommendation for a smaller boundary expansion from its own planners and instead pledged to meet the next 30 years of demand for housing by growing up - particularly along strategic transit corridors - but also by adding gentle density" in single-family home neighbourhoods.

Clark signalled early on he was not pleased by that option, at one point writing an op-ed in The Spectator calling an urban boundary freeze unrealistic" and irresponsible."

This month, the ministry said by email it supports the city's plan to intensify - but expects outward growth, too.

It is expected that the City of Hamilton's population will grow to more than 800,000 people by 2051. According to the City of Hamilton's own planners, the existing urban boundaries did not have enough land to meet the long-term housing needs of residents," said a statement in response to Spectator questions about the expansion.

That is why, after careful consideration, the minister took the necessary action to accommodate this growth and allow for more desperately needed housing to be built."

The West End Home Builders Association also backed the move, arguing political clashes have only worsened Hamilton's well-documented housing shortage. It is time to take the politics out of local planning," it said in statement welcoming the order to expand the urban boundary.

The largest expansion area in Hamilton is Elfrida on the southeast Mountain. Other areas are along Twenty Road East and Twenty Road West, as well as around White Church Road near Mount Hope.

The ordered urban expansion - which includes 77 modifications to the city's land-use plan to 2051 - also coincides with the province's decision remove land from the Greenbelt for housing. In Hamilton, that includes about 1,900 acres of farmland - mostly south of Ancaster - now available for fast-tracked housing.

Hamilton's new city council has expressed outrage over the Tory government's moves, which have also sparked protests around Hamilton and elsewhere in Ontario.

For Coun. Mark Tadeson, the dust is still settling on the dizzying barrage of planning policy changes, but he argued residential development should be supported by the city's existing infrastructure. It shouldn't leapfrog."

But he argued that seems to be what is proposed in the White Church Road area of his Glanbrook ward south of Mount Hope, which city planners argue will not be quick or easy to service.

The Ward 11 councillor said the sum total of the province's land policy changes could be disastrous" for local agriculture and natural systems.

Some farmers are worried, too.

Not all of it is prime farmland, but the majority of it is," said Drew Spoelstra, whose family farms in the contested whitebelt and Greenbelt areas around Binbrook. Some of the land once used by the grain and dairy farmer in the past is already movie theatres and big box stores.

Ontario loses an estimated 300-plus acres of farmland to urban sprawl every day, noted Spoelstra, who is also a vice-president with the Ontario Federation of Agriculture.

He expressed hope the city can still phase" future development to keep key agricultural lands in production as long as possible. Hopefully we can maximize our intensification and density targets before we look to this other land."

How quickly housing can be built in formerly rural areas is up for debate.

Even though the province's decision opens 5,436 acres to development with the stroke of a pen, the expansion order also specifies building cannot start in those areas without a secondary plan" - basically a formal land-use blueprint.

That offers the opportunity to phase growth based on land needs, said Robichaud, the city's planning director. We know realistically, we don't need all of the land today," he said in an interview.

Secondary plans do not normally happen fast.

You might need watershed studies. New or expanded roads, sewers and pumping stations. In larger areas, maybe consideration over the placement of future parks, fire halls or schools.

Long-studied expansion areas like Elfrida that are closest to Hamilton's current urban edge are better positioned when it comes to servicing, while others, such as far-flung White Church, less so.

But development planning appears to have a head start in the former whitebelt lands along Twenty Road West, because a consortium of landowners had previously applied for a smaller, individual urban expansion back in 2020.

At the time, the planning agent for the Upper West Side Group, John Corbett, argued the 150-acre area of farmland in Glanbrook represented infill," rather than sprawl, because it is already hemmed in by homes and the airport district.

He also emphasized the clear economic benefit" to the city with an estimated $200 million in development charges and $35 million in additional tax revenue.

It's not clear how close the project is to being shovel-ready." Corbett and consortium member Mario Roque were unavailable for an interview this week.

But the group has done at least some of the studies necessary for a secondary plan - and some landowners have bet heavily that development will go ahead. Liv Communities spent $30 million in 2019 to buy about 127 acres in the area, for example.

Regardless, sprawl opponents have urged the city to slow-play any studies required to open farmland for housing. The province did not answer Spectator questions about how quickly the city is expected to act on new secondary plans.

But Robichaud pointed out individual developers can do their own secondary plans if they're not satisfied with the pace of city planning. Council must still approve or reject those plans - but rejected applicants could in turn appeal to the Ontario Land Tribunal. That would be the worst-case scenario," Robichaud said.

In the short term, sprawl opponents should urge Hamilton council to incentivize rapid housing construction" - from family-sized apartments to townhouses and semis - on existing urban lands, said Phil Pothen, a planning lawyer with advocacy group Environmental Defence.

Moreover, city councils can support policies that bar public monies from being spent on infrastructure for rural development, he added. Those are spending decisions that are not encompassed by the changes to planning laws."

Coun. John-Paul Danko said he's interested in finding ways" to focus city efforts on developing the existing urban area first. And anything that's outside the (former) urban boundary, it's not a priority, so we'll get to it when we do."

The west Mountain councillor argued the city is in the driver's seat when it comes to budgeting for roads and sewer pipes needed for development on expansion lands. We already have a huge capital infrastructure deficit, so my priority as a councillor is fixing the infrastructure that we already have," he said.

Sprawl opponents are also starting to strategize tactics ranging from legal challenges to protests and civil disobedience.

Pothen said Environmental Defence is committed to supporting efforts to keep bulldozers at bay." Activists also held an online brainstorming meeting Tuesday to discuss setting up Greenbelt Guardian" teams.

Is delaying development worth it? In theory, a future provincial government could always reverse Hamilton's forced urban expansion, says Pothen.

Such backtracking would create annoyance" for owners of new lands earmarked for development but would likely earn broad public support, he suggested. The government seems to be hoping that the furor over these decisions is something that is going to pass, and we are confident in this case that won't happen."

Matthew Van Dongen is a reporter at The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com

Teviah Moro is a reporter at The Spectator. tmoro@thespec.com

Some of the major players in Hamilton's expansion lands:

Developers already owned hundreds of acres of whitebelt-turned-expansion lands as early as November 2021, a year before Ontario imposed a new urban boundary. Some examples:

White Church Road

Paletta International: one of the largest real estate owners in Hamilton-Halton, owns at least 66 acres on White Church - just across the road from Greenbelt land recently opened for fast-tracked housing;

Wilson St. Ancaster Inc: includes Frank Spallacci of Spallacci Homes as a director. Owned about 62 acres near the recent Greenbelt carve-out;

Twenty Road East and West

The Upper West Side Landowners group: includes Spallacci and GTA developer Liv Communities, among others, owned more than 420 acres. This group pursued an urban boundary expansion in 2020;

Demik family: Demik Homes, a builder in Hamilton for half-a-century, owned more than 65 acres;

Sonoma Homes: a well-known builder in Ancaster and Mount Hope, owned more than 48 acres;

Elfrida

Multi-Area Developments: a family-run builder headed by Aldo DeSantis, owned at least 335 acres;

Paletta International Corp: owned at least 330 acres;

Corpveil Holdings: Effort Trust officials like Thomas Weisz or David Horwood are listed as directors of several Elfrida landholding corporations, including Corpveil. Owned at least 225 acres;

Marz Homes: Hamilton-based home builder, owned at least 183 acres.