NFL Week 17 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
With two weeks to go, we can take away a handful of lessons from the 2022 NFL season when it comes to our best bets:
- Shop for the best of the number. Flipping your pushes to wins makes the ledger prettier without paying for it.
- Stick to what you're good at. If betting totals are taking away from your profit margin, stop betting them.
- Moneyline underdogs are better early in the season than late since we don't really know who's good or bad at that point. (Even if the Eagles probably should have won last week.)
- Trust the math with teasers. Give the sample size a chance to be profitable long term. We're 7-2 after a 2-5 start!
- Take pride in how you handle bad beats. Manage your bankroll to absorb losses, like when the Patriots and Bengals sunk an over by refusing to convert PATs.
| BET TYPE | LAST WEEK | SEASON (units) |
|---|---|---|
| ATS trio | 1-2 (-1.2) | 23-19-6 (+2.2) |
| ML upset | -1 | 6-10 (+1.2) |
| Totals | -1.1 | 5-11 (-7.1) |
| Teasers | +1 | 9-7 (+0.6) |
| TOTAL | -2.3 | -3.1 |
Bears +6
We didn't include the Bears in this week's round-robin moneyline parlay because the Lions are a different team at home. However, this spread has become a classic example of a line crawling up at this point of the season because one team is deemed to desperately need the game. It also helps Detroit that Chicago falls short every week.
Chicago was favored by around a field goal at home in this matchup in Week 10 and outgained Detroit 408-323. The Lions won on a missed extra point. Despite being in playoff contention thanks to wins over the Giants, Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets, a nine-point swing is too much of an adjustment for Detroit. Expect a close game between the division rivals.
Jaguars -4
You'll hear a lot of talk about how meaningless this game is to Jacksonville. Don't tell that to an organization that hasn't beaten the Texans since 2017.
The Jaguars outgained Houston 422-248 in a 10-6 loss earlier this season, so the case that Trevor Lawrence can't figure out Lovie Smith's Cover 2 defense rings hollow. Plus, a light seems to have turned on for Lawrence since the Jaguars' bye.
Maybe the Texans are playing better. They suffered close losses to the Cowboys and Chiefs before winning last week. However, Houston may have caught the Cowboys napping when it deployed its two-quarterback wrinkle and got the usual hard running from Dameon Pierce before he got hurt. Getting to overtime with the Chiefs sounds impressive until you realize the yardage count was 502-219 for K.C. Finally, last week's win over Malik Willis and a mangled Titans roster wasn't enough for me to buy into the Texans at a spread two points shorter than it should be.
49ers -9.5
There's not some genius handicap for this game. Sometimes, there doesn't have to be. Jarrett Stidham isn't replacing Derek Carr because we need to see if he can play. It's because Raiders ownership doesn't want to risk owing Carr more money. Stidham is being led to slaughter, and comments from both Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs suggest that a rally isn't forthcoming.
Sharp money beat sportsbooks to the punch when the line was 49ers -6, but a decent-sized middle opportunity was created when buyback came at +10. The line might've been higher had it been made organically as it's more likely that San Francisco pounds a poorly coached team that has nothing left.
Moneyline upset of the weekOur defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Rams +230
It's a home game masquerading as a road game for the Rams, whose quarterback is vibing nicely with the best play-caller he's ever had in his NFL career. Baker Mayfield is making the right reads with Sean McVay in his ear, and he has a better quarterback rating than Matthew Stafford this season.
The Chargers clinched a playoff spot Monday night thanks to three straight wins, but the offense has averaged just 20 points per game in that stretch. Expect this to be a tightly contested hallway rivalry. This game has a moneyline price reflecting the Rams' low point this season, not how they've played lately.
Best total betBrowns/Commanders over 40.5 points
This isn't a game we're dying to play a side on, but there's some value in betting the over between a pair of quarterbacks with something to prove. You can throw out the Browns' recent results as the balmy conditions in Washington on Sunday will be the polar opposite of what Deshaun Watson had to deal with the last two weeks at home. Plus, Watson will face a Commanders defense that gave up 7.3 yards per play in San Francisco.
Carson Wentz gets to take on a bad Browns defense after he showed a little spark when he replaced Taylor Heinicke last week. Both teams can get to 20 points, but, knowing how totals have gone for us this season, we're hoping this won't be a 20-20 tie.
Best 6-point teaserSeahawks +8 / Steelers +8.5
It's no longer teasin' season as there are so few matchups that we can expect to linger around the point spread. It's hard to find anyone who likes the Seahawks, but there's a reason their game with the Jets is lined near pick'em, even with the return of Mike White.
Meanwhile, we like to use this space as something of a dare. In this case, can Tyler Huntley and the Ravens beat anyone by more than 8.5 points, let alone their biggest rival?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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