Key takeaways and analysis from Week 17 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Brady still inevitable Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Some of you were certainly getting excited about a playoff year without Tom Brady. It was close! You didn't actually believe it would happen, though, did you?

The Bucs haven't been fun to watch for much of the season, and that remained the case for parts of Sunday's must-win game against the Panthers. But in a development we probably should have expected, even if all evidence pointed to the contrary, Tampa's offense finally figured it out. It felt like 2020 all over again.

Brady rose to the occasion with his best performance of the season, completing 34 of 45 passes for a season-high 432 yards and three long touchdowns to Mike Evans. Oh, and the master of quarterback sneaks all but sealed the win with his first rushing score of the campaign. Against all odds, the NFC South title officially remains in Tampa Bay.

It's been impossible to put a finger on what exactly has held the Bucs' offense back this year. Sometimes it's the protection. Other times it seems like Brady isn't his usual self. More often than not, the entire operation feels bizarrely out of sync. The protection will likely remain an issue heading into the playoffs, but Brady's masterpiece in a big spot against the Panthers is all the proof you need that the old guy's still got it. If this was the offense finally figuring out how to piece it all together and again getting its best receiver involved downfield, the NFC playoff picture just got a whole lot more interesting.

Tampa Bay will presumably rest key players for a meaningless Week 18 finale against the Falcons and start preparing for Wild Card Weekend. Barring a collapse from the Eagles next week, the Bucs will host the Cowboys in the opening round. That's undoubtedly a challenging matchup. Dallas has a legitimate case as the best team in football right now. Based on everything we've seen this year, it should be a cupcake first-round matchup for the visitors. But don't we know better than to count Brady out?

There's just something so incredibly juicy about a game between a Cowboys team known for playoff disappointments and a Bucs squad that, for all its faults, has the ultimate equalizer. Don't let the GOAT get hot.

Packers back? Kayla Wolf / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Speaking of teams we may have ruled out too quickly, how about those Packers?

Green Bay sat at 4-8 heading into December, needing to the run table and get help elsewhere to save its season. Four weeks later, everything is turning up green and gold.

Last week's Christmas Day win over the Dolphins gave the Packers three straight, putting them back in the mix for a wild-card spot. Sunday's home date with the Vikings was supposed to be the toughest test yet. But all we got was further evidence that Minnesota is one of the more fraudulent 12-win teams we've ever seen.

The 41-17 final in favor of the Packers doesn't even do justice to the beatdown they delivered to their NFC North rival. This was a 41-3 rout before a pair of garbage time scores from the Vikings made the result appear the faintest bit respectable.

Green Bay's late-season resurgence differs from Tampa Bay's in that this isn't about a high-powered passing attack finding its groove at the right time. That's no longer the way this team is built. The 40-burger from the Packers came despite just 159 passing yards from Aaron Rodgers, his fifth sub-200-yard effort of the season.

Rodgers still has a critical role, as any quarterback would, but Green Bay was always going to go as far as the defense would take them. The issue early in the season was that the talented group on that side of the ball didn't live up to expectations. That's no longer the case.

The defense put the clamps on Tua Tagovailoa and a high-powered Dolphins passing attack last week with three second-half interceptions. The Packers recorded another trio of picks against Kirk Cousins in Sunday's blowout of the Vikings. However, the real story is how well they defended the league's best receiver after allowing him to go off for 184 yards in Week 1.

Packers DBs:
3 INTs, 120 yards, 1 TD

Justin Jefferson:
1 reception, 15 yards

- Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) January 1, 2023

Green Bay's miraculous run down the stretch sets the stage for a Week 18 win-and-you're-in opportunity at home against Detroit. The NFL could end up flexing that game into the Sunday night slot.

The Lions, another of the NFL's hottest teams, present a more difficult challenge than the Vikings. Much of the football world will root for them to knock off a team that has long owned the division. But after everything we've seen from the Packers lately, are we really going to bet against them finishing the job at Lambeau?

Hurts' value showing Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Jalen Hurts already had a rock-solid case for MVP. The last two games only provided further confirmation of his near-unmatched value.

The Eagles hung with Dallas in a shootout last week, but Gardner Minshew leaving a few plays on the field and committing three costly turnovers made the difference in their second defeat of the season. Then came this week's loss at home to the Saints, where the offense managed just 10 points and tied a season-low 67 rushing yards.

A healthy Hurts likely leads Philly to at least one win over that stretch, if not two, easily clinching the No. 1 seed in the process. Instead, the team's quest for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs will extend into Week 18. That isn't ideal, but perhaps not a cause for concern, either.

The Giants securing their playoff spot and locking themselves into the No. 6 seed means they'll have nothing to play for when they head to Philadelphia for the regular-season finale. Whether Hurts is back in the lineup or Minshew starts his third straight game, New York sitting its starters would give the Eagles a fairly easy path to a win and the top seed.

Of course, the priority is getting Hurts healthy for the playoffs. There are few, if any, defenses that can truly match up with Philadelphia's offense when it's at full strength. While the last few weeks have briefly halted the team's momentum, Hurts and star right tackle Lane Johnson returning to action should quickly help get things back on track.

And who knows? Perhaps a few late-season losses that don't cost them anything in the playoff race will only help this club lock in for a Super Bowl run. The Eagles are still the ones to beat in the NFC.

Rivera gambles and fails Todd Olszewski / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Ron Rivera's decision to go back to Carson Wentz this week made sense. The Commanders were winless in three straight with Taylor Heinicke under center, and the quarterback's turnovers played a major factor in Washington losing its grip on a playoff spot. Why not go back to the player with the higher ceiling?

Unfortunately for Rivera, sound logic doesn't guarantee the results you want. Wentz was at his worst in a crushing loss to the Browns, throwing for a mere 143 yards and three backbreaking interceptions. It's tough not to wonder whether Rivera will pay the price for the bold move.

Falling to 7-8-1 meant the Commanders would need some help to save their season, but the Vikings weren't up to the task in Green Bay. The Packers winning their fourth straight officially eliminated Washington from playoff contention a month after it appeared in full control of its postseason destiny at 7-5.

Rivera deserves credit for even getting the Commanders in this competitive position. That isn't to say the disaster quarterback change on its own should end up costing him his job. But it certainly could, considering what was at stake.

This will be Washington's second consecutive year on the outside looking in after losing a wild-card game in Rivera's first campaign in 2020. But even that postseason appearance was more about the incompetence of the NFC East than anything else. A loss in next week's season finale would make it three consecutive seven-win campaigns for Rivera. The Jeff Fisher special, if you will.

Rivera has always been known as a great leader. Perhaps new ownership - assuming Dan Snyder ends up selling the team in the coming months - will value that above other factors. However, the recent track record of mediocrity isn't going to help his case if the organization, whoever ends up in control, is weighing the possibility of starting fresh.

Quick slants

Steelers hanging around

Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Mike Tomlin simply won't allow his teams to be bad. Nobody expected a Steelers club playing either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett to be sniffing a playoff spot in a loaded AFC. In mid-November, with Pittsburgh sitting at 3-7 and showing no signs of promise, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Tomlin's 15-year run of avoiding losing seasons would end. But Sunday night's miraculous last-minute victory over the Ravens gives the Steelers five wins in their last six games, getting them back to .500 and keeping their playoff hopes alive. A win over the Browns in Week 18 and losses from the Patriots and Dolphins would see Pittsburgh cap off the wild late-season run and get back in the playoffs.

Seahawks stay alive

The Seahawks hype train had seemingly run out of steam in recent weeks - losing five of six games tends to have that effect. But the playoffs were still well within reach for Seattle heading into this week, and the club took advantage of the opportunity with a convincing win over the Jets. Geno Smith made his share of plays, and Kenneth Walker was sensational again. However, the entire defense gets game balls for this one. The unit entered play ranked toward the bottom of the league in nearly all advanced statistical categories but forced three turnovers Sunday and held the Jets to just six points. Getting a win over the Rams next week shouldn't be an issue if the Seahawks play like this. A victory in Week 18 while getting some help from the Lions would complete the incredible journey from projected bottom-feeder to surprise playoff team. Pete Carroll deserves Coach of the Year consideration regardless of how it plays out.

Dolphins collapse

It was only a month ago the Dolphins were sitting pretty at 8-3 and seemingly a virtual lock for their first playoff appearance since 2016. Things sure do change quickly in this league. Five straight losses have Miami on the outside of the playoff picture, needing a win over the Jets and the Patriots to lose to the Bills in Week 18 to sneak in. The latter may be a likely result if Buffalo still has something to play for. But the Dolphins could be looking to take care of their end of business with seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson under center. Tagovailoa's status remains up in the air, and Teddy Bridgewater suffered a broken finger on his throwing hand in Sunday's loss to New England. It's not impossible, but the poor run to close out the season has Miami with its backs against the wall.

Stidham did what?

Getting your first career start against the NFL's No. 1 defense is tough enough. Add in the drama surrounding the Raiders' decision to bench Derek Carr, and it was fair to assume that Jarrett Stidham would be in for a long day when the 49ers came to town. But the backup quarterback was more than up to the task. Stidham had the offense running at a high level throughout the contest, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns while adding 34 yards on the ground to help the Raiders take a Super Bowl front-runner to overtime. Las Vegas ultimately came up short, with pressure from Nick Bosa in the extra frame forcing Stidham's second interception of the day. Still, it was an impressive debut for the former fourth-round pick. Stidham's sample size is small, but maybe it's worth exploring whether there's something about Carr's game - perhaps his inconsistent management of the pocket - that prevented him from running Josh McDaniels' offense as intended. Stidham throwing for more yards against the 49ers than Carr did against any team this season is certainly notable on that front.

Darnold's quiet development

Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Brady and the Bucs coming through with a big-time performance in a division-clinching game will dominate the conversation about their matchup with the Panthers. But let's also give Sam Darnold some deserved shine. Largely written off as yet another first-round draft bust, Darnold has been something of an afterthought since landing in Carolina. In fairness, he didn't do much to inspire confidence as the starter last year. However, it's been a completely different story since he took over at the end of November. Darnold ranked third in EPA and first in completion percentage above expected from Weeks 12-16, according to Ben Baldwin's database. Then came his best performance yet, nearly leading the Panthers past the Bucs with 341 yards and three touchdowns. Don't overlook Darnold as a bridge quarterback option for teams this offseason. There's some upside there if he can continue to avoid the negative plays that haunted him with the Jets.

McCaffrey trade revisited

We can call the 49ers the winner of the Christian McCaffrey trade now, right? Even if you love draft picks or can't bear the idea of a team valuing running backs more than the internet does, you have to admit this was a home run for San Francisco. McCaffrey was again the centerpiece for the 49ers' offense in a win over the Raiders, contributing as the lead ball carrier and a high-volume pass catcher en route to 193 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. We've said it here before, but this truly is the perfect marriage of player and scheme. There is no shortage of ways San Francisco can get the ball into McCaffrey's hands. We should only expect Kyle Shanahan to get more creative when the games really start to matter in January. The 49ers aren't going to be missing those mid-round picks.

Nixon a budding star

Back to Green Bay for a second. Not only are the Packers getting improved play from the defense lately, but after years of a net negative on special teams, they're now dominating in the kicking game, too. Keisean Nixon is the key to it all. A reserve defensive back for three years with the Raiders, Nixon had seen only six kickoff return opportunities in 40 games before landing in Green Bay last offseason. It took the Packers a while to realize he could be a weapon as a return man, as he didn't get involved there until midseason, but he's been a superstar since. One big play after another had Nixon leading the league in average yards per kick return coming into this week, and he broke through for a 105-yard touchdown in the win over the Vikings. If they get there, he could be a major weapon for the Packers in the playoffs.

Saturday doesn't belong

Recent reports have suggested the Colts are seriously considering keeping Jeff Saturday on as the full-time head coach. One question: Why? The goofiest NFL hire we've ever seen is playing out pretty much exactly as everyone expected. Indianapolis is a trainwreck. After Saturday won his debut - which can be chalked up to that weird trend of teams overachieving in an interim coach's first game - the Colts have been the worst club in football. Sunday's contest against a Giants team that had yet to win a game by more than one score this season wasn't even remotely competitive. This stretch of losing is ultimately a good thing for Indy because a higher draft pick means a better chance at a quarterback of the future. But keeping Saturday would threaten to hold back the development of any young passer, no matter the talent.

Stat of the week

The Minnesota Vikings are 12-4 with a point differential of -19.

- Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) January 2, 2023

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