NHL Monday best bets: Senators to rebound on home ice

We are starting the week off with a fun little four-game slate. Let's take a look at a couple of home sides worth backing.

The Nashville Predators enter play on a three-game winning streak. I don't see them extending it to four against the Ottawa Senators.

Although the Predators have played a fairly difficult schedule of late, there are some concerning trends beneath the surface, especially on the defensive side of things.

At five-on-five, only the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens have conceded expected goals at a higher rate over the last 10 games.

Ottawa is not an ideal matchup considering those struggles. Despite dealing with injuries to key players like Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle throughout the season, they have not had any issue creating dangerous chances at full-strength. The Senators rank sixth in expected goals per 60 minutes while playing five a side.

They should be able to generate more than their share of opportunities against this exploitable Predators defense. And, if all else fails, this is a strong matchup for the Senators' lethal power play.

The Predators are a below-average team when it comes to avoiding penalties. They also give up a lot of looks while undermanned. For the season, only the Ducks, Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes have given up expected goals at a higher rate.

Suffice to say, the Senators - who rank top five in expected goals and actual goals per 60 on the power play - are likely to cause real headaches for the Predators.

While an Anton Forsberg start here would definitely be preferable, the Predators are a subpar shot-generating team and rank 26th in goals per game. Cam Talbot should be able to put forth a competent performance if DJ Smith goes with him.

Bet: Senators (-115)

The Buffalo Sabres are a handful to deal with these days. They are on a 8-2-0 run and have outscored opponents 41-27 in that time.

I expect their success to continue Monday night against the Philadelphia Flyers.

The Flyers are not a good defensive team at all. They have bled shots all season long and, over the last 10 games, rank 29th in expected goals against at five-on-five. They give up a lot of good looks.

Sometimes they can get away with that thanks to Carter Hart. He started Sunday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, though, so the expectation is they'll turn to Samuel Ersson.

He has posted a respectable .905 save percentage through four NHL games. However, those came against the Ducks, San Jose Sharks, New York Islanders, and Los Angeles Kings. There is only one playoff team in that group and none of the offenses are overly scary.

The Sabres, who lead in goals per game, are a completely different animal than any team Ersson has seen. Given the Flyers' defensive struggles, he's likely to be tested early and often.

I don't think he's going to hold up against such a potent offense for 60 minutes. Even with Buffalo's mediocre goaltending, I don't see Philadelphia's offense being able to keep up, either.

This Sabres blue line is underrated and fairly solid when healthy. With the likes of Mattias Samuelsson and, more recently, Owen Power returning over the past couple of weeks, the Sabres have the pieces needed to compliment Rasmus Dahlin and provide some stabilizing play behind their potent attack.

Look for the Sabres to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Sabres in regulation (-145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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