NFL Playoff betting: What opening lines say about each wild-card team

We're through another wild regular season in the NFL. From a props and futures standpoint, we got ahead of the game with an early big cash on the Eagles to be the last undefeated team, and now that Week 18 is over, a collection of other tickets are reflected in the accounts. Justin Jefferson bets to lead the league in receiving yards more than compensated for losses on the rushing and passing yardage titles, while divisional winners in the NFC overcame swings and misses in the AFC.

Dramatically, a handful of bad preseason bets like those in win totals and make/miss playoff markets were wiped out Sunday, with a miracle touchdown and two-point conversion by the Texans that gave the Bears the worst record in the NFL. Plus, there are still awards to be handed out, and we'll be anxious to hear specific names called for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year.

Now it's on to the final 13 most important games of the campaign. We've had our eye on team ratings in the marketplace all season, and 14 teams remain. All you need to know about the difficulty of betting point spreads in the regular season is that the team with the best record against the spread (Giants, 13-4) and the worst record against the spread (Buccaneers, 4-12-1) both made the playoffs. Meanwhile, the top seeds in the playoffs finished 5-11-1 (Chiefs) and 8-9 (Eagles) against the closing line.

Despite some quarterback uncertainty for a pair of teams, point spreads for Wild Card Weekend opened Sunday night and have settled as of Monday afternoon.

Seahawks @ 49ers (-10)
Chargers (-1.5) @ Jaguars
Dolphins @ Bills (-11)
Giants @ Vikings (-3)
Ravens @ Bengals (-6.5)
Cowboys (-3) @ Buccaneers

These lines can offer some insight as to how the market rates these teams.

Playoff team power ratings

The ratings below are out of 100 and suggest the likelihood, as a percentage, of that team beating an average team on a neutral field. The market rating is an estimate based on recent point spreads, while the column furthest right is my own average rating for the team. If that rating is lower than market, it means I believe that team may be overrated. Conversely, if I'm higher on a team, I'd be more likely to back it in the playoffs.

TEAM	MARKET RATING	MY RATING
Bills	73	72
Chiefs	72	74
49ers	66	69
Eagles	66	63
Cowboys	66	60
Bengals	61	62
Chargers	55	58
Buccaneers	52	50
Vikings	48	50
Giants	46	44
Ravens	45	55
Jaguars	44	49
Dolphins	43	40
Seahawks	41	39

The Bills have been favored at Kansas City and Cincinnati, so it shouldn't be a surprise that they're still atop oddsmakers' power ratings. However, you'll be hard-pressed to stop me from betting on the Chiefs in a potential neutral-site matchup, especially if I'm getting points with K.C.

In the NFC, the 49ers were available for as short as -8.5 against the Seahawks on Sunday night, taking money immediately that pushed them to -10 by the time the game became widely available. It's a move I agree with. In a game that mattered for both teams, Seattle was a home underdog against the Jets in Week 17.

A soft schedule for the NFC East combined with the exposure that teams like the Eagles and Cowboys get has me believing they're overrated in the betting market. With the exception of their meeting on Christmas Eve, Philadelphia and Dallas haven't covered a spread since the Cowboys' big fourth quarter against the Colts on Dec. 4.

The Buccaneers spent a significant portion of the season rated around the same low-60s area that I have the Cowboys and Eagles now. However, Tampa's taken enough of a hit in its perception that it's at least properly rated as league average and in the role of home underdog.

The Bengals continually surprise by how relatively low they're rated in the betting market, which is why they have an incredible record against the spread over the last season-and-a-half. They face the Ravens, whose market rating and +6.5-point spread suggest Tyler Huntley will start. If Lamar Jackson were to play, my rating would take precedence and the line would drop to around Bengals -4.

The Vikings continue to get little credit for their 13-4 record, but the playoffs offer an opportunity to prove everyone wrong ... or right. Their wild-card opponent, the Giants, have the highest rating they've had all season - which is why they had the best ATS record of all 32 teams.

Bettors excited about the Chargers getting healthy got a giant jug of water dumped on them when Brandon Staley refused to rest his injury-plagued stars for the sake of momentum, only to lose in Denver anyway. Perhaps, as a result, the Jaguars took money on open at +2.5.

Lastly, how do we account for teams whose results are on the move relative to their rating? We try to stay ahead of it directionally. The Jaguars have won five straight to make the playoffs, while the Dolphins had lost five in a row before whatever that win was against the Jets. Miami's quarterback situation could change the equation, but for now, that line reflects an in-between number from either Skylar Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater as the potential starter in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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