Seahawks-49ers player props: Triple dipping on San Francisco
We've had fun all season long with the NFL's version of "Must See TV" Thursdays. We've tried to keep things light, using the famous TV show "Seinfeld" to help with our look at the prop markets and get us in the right state of mind. While the playoffs mean it's more serious for the players, we should be reminded that it's still just any other game for bettors, and there are still lessons to be taken from Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer.
"You're the consolation guy!"
"I'm the consolation guy?"
"The consolation guy is big. Her aunt dying is the best thing that ever happened to you. This confers upon you instant boyfriend status." - Jerry to George, advising him to go to a family funeral with his latest love interest.
When the Lions beat the Packers in the final game of the regular season, the Seahawks became consolation guys. Would the NFL's partners prefer Aaron Rodgers moving into Wild Card Weekend? Probably. Would most fans prefer the lovable HBO stars from Detroit taking on the 49ers? Likely.
In Episode 18 of Season 4 of "Seinfeld," Elaine tells Jerry that she's suspicious of the 100% physical authenticity of his new girlfriend Sidra - played by Teri Hatcher. Like the Seahawks, Elaine eventually lands into the situation because while Jerry doesn't mind someone with a phony personality, he has to draw the line somewhere.
We'll play off that idea as we look over the prop markets for Saturday's postseason opener. While the Seahawks are the team that might be fake, we can believe their two meetings with the Niners felt real.
'The Implant'Seattle and San Francisco recently met for a Thursday Night Football game, so we've been down this road before. Much of what Jerry and Elaine schemed up seemed unnecessary when you think about it, and there isn't any reason to go out of our way here.
You don't get extra money for going off the radar, so George Kittle's historical dominance over the 'Hawks is worth playing again. He missed the first meeting of the season, but his four catches in Week 15 tallied 93 yards and two touchdowns.
Kittle has connected well with Brock Purdy, as the tight end followed up that performance with 120 yards versus the Commanders. Kittle has averaged one full target more per game (6.4) with Purdy under center, recording 13.3 yards per catch with an 11% increase in average depth of target.
It's not just Kittle taking advantage of the Seahawks, who allow 69.3 yards per contest to opposing tight ends - the worst in the league. He won't get the backlash of Salman Rushdie - who Kramer thinks he spots at the gym - but the 49ers' tight end authors another bestseller Saturday afternoon.
Pick: George Kittle over 42.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happenDeebo Samuel steals his strength for the playoffs, pushing and pulling defenders away like Jerry's hero Superman.
He had just two carries and a reception in his return to the lineup in Week 18, but we already know Samuel isn't Clark Kent when the 49ers near the end zone. He's only played one other full game with Purdy, scoring on a 13-yard rush among nine touches.
The payout for a touchdown against Seattle might be this long because Samuel has just five of them this season. However, he's hit paydirt in two of three postseason games and recorded 14 touchdowns last campaign. Like Hatcher playing Lois Lane on another show in the mid-'90s, we know Samuel's perfect for his role in what's forecast to be sloppy conditions at Levi's Stadium. The chances he's relied on in the red zone are real, and they're spectacular.
Pick: Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+160)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it doesIf George had a playbook as expansive as Kyle Shanahan's, he wouldn't have such a hard time taking his relationship to the next level and need to go to Detroit to claim "boyfriend status" in-between double-dips of a chip.
Costanza can't go right, and Jerry can't go left, but the 49ers' offense will come at you from all directions. If you're on the field and eligible, you're a threat to score, but a bet should ideally make sense mathematically.
Kyle Juszczyk plays roughly half the snaps, scoring two touchdowns in 16 games this season, or 12.5% of the time. He's scored in 20.4% of contests over the last three seasons. The fullback also has a 16.7% scoring rate in the playoffs, compiling one touchdown in six matchups.
Odds as high as 11-1 suggest an 8.3% implied win probability, so we're getting between 4% and 8% value. Also, heavy rain in the forecast could make anyone lining up near the quarterback a better-than-usual option to score.
He might only get a single look to score, but at +1100, we'll bet Juszczyk to take one dip and end it.
Pick: Kyle Juszczyk anytime touchdown (+1100)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.