Key takeaways and analysis from Super Wild Card Weekend

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Brady's last dance? Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport / Getty

And now we wait.

The Bucs getting blown out by the Cowboys in Monday night's wild-card game means that speculation over Tom Brady's future can officially begin. It'll make for a fascinating offseason storyline, and one that's getting increasingly complicated to size up.

There have been times this year where it seemed obvious to say that Brady can still play. It was only two weeks ago that he torched the Panthers with one big-time throw after another to save Tampa Bay's season and lock up the division title. The arm talent, which is typically one of the first things to escape aging quarterbacks, undeniably remains. In fact, it's somehow still probably better than it was early in his career.

Brady also continues to take care of the football at a high level - he finished the regular season with just nine interceptions despite an NFL-record 733 pass attempts, and his turnover-worthy play percentage tied for the seventh-lowest mark league-wide, according to PFF.

But the player we saw throughout a disastrous Bucs loss Monday night was one that showed up at times throughout this bizarre season - he's simply not a fan of contact right now. It's tough to blame a 45-year-old for doing whatever he can to avoid taking hits, but that will be a major part of the evaluation for teams that desperately want to avoid losing a bet on a quarterback who is older than 11 NFL head coaches.

Brady is one of the best we've ever seen at working under pressure and extending plays in the pocket. If this new antsy approach is more so a result of him losing faith in the Bucs' dumpster fire of an offense, and less so a sign of his age, perhaps he gets back to that with new surroundings. But there's also a chance that this is just the way he is now.

The future Hall of Famer not quite looking himself in that sense, and seeming outmatched in a non-competitive trip to the playoffs, would appear to indicate that retirement is very much on the table. But is Brady, of all people, really going to be satisfied going out like that? Remember: he was reportedly set on going to Miami last offseason before reluctantly returning to Tampa Bay when that didn't work out as planned. One would assume he'd like a little more control over the way he puts a cap on his career.

The 49ers will be a popular potential landing spot, but that's becoming more and more unlikely the further they advance with Brock Purdy under center. Kyle Shanahan also passed on Brady at the spry age of 42, the last time he was a free agent. The Dolphins make sense given the previous connection, and Stephen Ross' apparent willingness to get Brady involved at an ownership level, but Tua Tagovailoa's breakout season should give Miami a more attractive in-house option than what may only be a single season of the GOAT.

That could leave the Raiders, who apparently had a deal in place to bring both Brady and Gronk to Las Vegas in 2020 before Jon Gruden got cold feet. It would be a sensible move for Josh McDaniels to reunite with his old quarterback, and for Mark Davis to get some more hometown fans in the seats. And perhaps a return to McDaniels' system would be good for Brady. The question is whether they can offer him a path to contention right away.

However it shakes out, Brady's decision will be the story of the offseason. And while his 2022 campaign will cause many to write him off, we know better than to do that by now, don't we?

A coaching masterpiece Courtney Culbreath / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Doug Pederson immediately leading the Jaguars to the playoffs after they held back-to-back No. 1 overall picks was impressive. It turns out that was just the appetizer.

The main course was one of the best coaching displays you'll ever see on a football field.

Jacksonville looked to be outmatched early in Saturday night's game against the Chargers, with four first-half interceptions from Trevor Lawrence leading to a 27-0 deficit and a seemingly impossible task. Pederson and the Jaguars weren't so inclined to accept their fate, though.

A key touchdown at the end of the second quarter finally got them on the board and gave them a chance to make a run. After the half, Pederson and his staff ramped up the tempo and made some adjustments to the coverage looks that were presenting issues early on. The second-half result was three consecutive touchdown drives, highlighted by a masterfully designed deep strike to Zay Jones that demonstrated the in-game swing in schematic advantage.

This diagram of the Jones TD is more informative than the last one. It's as good as it gets when it comes to designing concepts that exploit coverage rules, and where Pederson separates himself from others who draw these up is in his talent for teaching his QBs every single step. https://t.co/noDV8RtZ0j pic.twitter.com/2QmYUKZys3

- Honest NFL (@TheHonestNFL) January 15, 2023

Then came some impeccable game-management decisions. After a fourth straight touchdown drive got the Jaguars to within four points late in the fourth quarter, Pederson took advantage of a Joey Bosa penalty by having it enforced on the try and going for two. The successful conversion set the stage for Jacksonville to win it with a kick on its next possession.

The Jaguars would go on to do exactly that after forcing a three-and-out, but not before another big moment from Pederson. The Jacksonville head coach called a timeout after not liking the look he saw before a crucial 4th-and-1 at the Chargers' 41. The replacement play call was genius, as it got Travis Etienne on the edge against a cornerback out of an unorthodox formation. The running back's 25-yard scamper put the Jags in range for the winning field goal, effectively sealing a historic playoff comeback win.

Players are the ones who have to execute on the field, and coaches will always defer credit to them in the end, but coaches like Pederson make all the difference when it comes to putting them in a position to succeed. And it sure is refreshing to see this kind of flawless performance in a league filled with coaches who could stand to learn a thing or two about clock management from teenage Madden players.

It's amazing that more teams weren't lining up to hire the coach who's just a few years removed from winning a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

Staley's job status Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Chargers blew a playoff game in a way that only the Chargers can, generating some intense criticism of Brandon Staley. Nearly all of it is very much deserved.

Staley and his staff were severely outcoached after jumping out to the 27-0 lead, wasting the advantage they'd created with another impressive defensive game plan. And with the Chargers' offense held to just three points in the second half, how can you not look back at his decision to play his starters in a meaningless Week 18 game? A healthy Mike Williams likely makes the difference in closing out the Jaguars.

That makes it two consecutive disappointing seasons for the Chargers despite having one of the league's most talented quarterbacks playing on a rookie deal. This year's result is especially tough to swallow because the catastrophic playoff collapse against a 9-8 Jaguars team comes on the heels of an aggressive offseason in which Los Angeles loaded up on talent.

All of this is to say that, yes, you could absolutely build a case for firing Staley. Coaches have lost their jobs as a result of less embarrassing defeats. But we probably shouldn't be expecting that kind of change.

Chargers ownership has never been all that interested in panic moves at head coach, especially when such a decision would require a buyout of remaining years on staff contracts. And for those who understandably made the connection to Sean Payton, desperately hoping to see an elite offensive mind work with Justin Herbert, don't get your hopes up. Payton getting the massive payday he seeks with the Chargers, of all teams, feels wildly unlikely.

And this is before we even consider that there remains reason to believe in their current head coach.

Staley's defense really began to shine against the pass over the second half of the regular season, posting a top-four mark in EPA/dropback from Weeks 9-18, according to Ben Baldwin's database. Looking beyond the collapse, if we can, there were obvious signs of that shutdown-level play in the first half against the Jaguars, too.

With the players getting another year in that system, and the front office having assets to add even more talent, there's no reason that upward trajectory shouldn't continue under a coach of Staley's defensive expertise. The Chargers could be well on their way, as dangerous as that may feel to predict, with some changes to the offensive staff, alone, and an injection of speed at receiver.

Payton and Herbert for the next 10 years would be incredible for Chargers fans and neutral observers alike. But a more capable offensive coordinator joining Staley, like former Colts head coach Frank Reich, could be a lot better than people think, even in the wake of the latest Chargers meltdown.

49ers' talent is too much Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

You're going to hear a lot about Brock Purdy this week. He'll be dubbed the quarterback of the future in San Francisco. With every win the 49ers rack up on this playoff run, talking heads will draw comparisons to the arrival of Tom Brady in 2001, as if that's a totally fine and normal thing to do. The discourse never disappoints.

Purdy has provided more than this team could've ever expected from a seventh-round rookie, no doubt. But to pretend this is all about him, and draw silly comparisons to all-time great players, is merely a symptom of this irrational idea that quarterbacks are all that matter in this league. The 49ers doing what they're doing with Purdy proves that isn't even remotely the case.

Despite what the final stats might suggest, Purdy wasn't especially good for much of Saturday's win over the Seahawks. He routinely bailed on clean pockets, he made some questionable decisions with the ball, and his placement was lacking. The incredible thing about the 49ers is that none of it mattered. Perhaps it would matter against a better opponent, but don't be so sure. San Francisco is just that good.

This is the league's most dangerous offense because of a wildly unfair combination of schematic genius and All-Pro skill-position talent. Kyle Shanahan has long been the league's most creative play-caller, and there's just no way for defenses to match up when the weapons at his disposal include the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. Receivers are regularly running wide open into space - it's a quarterback's dream.

Purdy still has to make the throws, of course, and his ability to extend plays is a big reason the 49ers have been more productive with him under center than they were with Jimmy Garoppolo. He deserves credit both for that and the general poise he's demonstrated just months after landing in San Francisco as the last pick of the draft. None of this is meant to trash an impressive young player.

But the fun storyline of Mr. Irrelevant quarterbacking a team with Super Bowl aspirations shouldn't cause us to take our eye off the ball here. This team has a real chance to win it all because of coaching and a rare collection of talent on both sides of the ball.

The 49ers have been a juggernaut years in the making, built to win even if injuries hit the quarterback room. No other team in football can say the same.

The Bills' roller coaster Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Welcome to the Josh Allen experience. It's one hell of a ride.

We know all about the upside by now - it's nearly unmatched. At his best, he's a top-two quarterback in the NFL. To say Allen can make every throw on the field doesn't even do his rare skill set justice - other quarterbacks wouldn't even dream of attempting the throws he makes look effortless. It's unicorn-type stuff.

The Bills superstar provided many of those jaw-dropping plays in Sunday's win over the Dolphins - the kind of throws that, in the moment, make you wonder whether any defense has even the faintest hope of stopping this passing game. But there's also the rub that comes with his ultra-aggressive play style. Sometimes he just won't - or can't - rein it in.

Allen's ability to get absolutely everything out of any given play too often causes him to want exactly that. It was a big reason the Dolphins found success with their blitz-heavy game plan and nearly pulled off the biggest upset in wild-card history. Allen threw multiple interceptions because of it and took a costly sack-fumble early in the second half that Miami ran in for a go-ahead score.

Ultimately, all that matters is that the Bills survived. We're not about to use this closer-than-expected win to cast doubt on their Super Bowl chances because the ceiling remains especially high with an all-time quarterback talent leading an outstanding roster. Everything they set out to achieve remains attainable.

But it's worth pointing out that this is a copycat league. Fellow contenders certainly took notice of the success the Dolphins had in throwing constant pressure at Allen. If YOLO deep balls are going to be his answer to blitzes, rather than taking simple hot reads underneath, opponents will be just fine trading the occasional big play for regular opportunities to get the Bills' offense off the field.

Josh Allen, playing with a lead, had an average target depth of 26.3 in the fourth quarter

- Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) January 16, 2023

And that's the big question facing the Bills and their quarterback in the coming weeks. Making good on their championship potential will require Allen stringing together three straight games of clean(ish) football with increasingly little room for error.

Overcoming some negative plays against a Dolphins team just trying to survive with Skylar Thompson at quarterback is one thing. The contenders they'll have to play the rest of the way, starting with the Bengals next week, are far more capable of making you pay for turnovers and empty drives. Let's see how the Bills adjust.

Quick slants

Forget the picks

Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Interceptions are bad - this is undeniably true. But there's a difference between a careless quarterback who regularly puts the ball in harm's way and a proven elite player who ran into some bad turnover luck down the stretch. Dak Prescott, in case there was any doubt, falls into the latter category. Dallas' wild-card win over the Bucs was an important reminder that there are few in the league who can dissect a defense at his level. Prescott put together a masterful performance to end Tampa Bay's season, going 25 of 33 for 305 yards, five total touchdowns, and no interceptions. It was far and away the best game of the year for both Dak and the Cowboys' offense as a whole, silencing any doubts spurred by their Week 18 dud and setting the stage for a blockbuster matchup with the 49ers in the divisional round. Get your popcorn ready for the game of the year.

Daboll puts on a clinic

The Giants were one of the worst offenses in football last year, ranking 31st in yards, 31st in points, 31st in dropback EPA, and 32nd in EPA/play - horrific football all around. It's almost unbelievable that Brian Daboll turned that group into the offense we saw in a win over the Vikings, with a healthy Saquon Barkley being the only notable personnel addition year-over-year. The first-year head coach's guidance has seen Daniel Jones go from fringe starter to mid-level quarterback almost immediately - the former first-rounder put together the best game of his career Sunday with 301 passing yards, 78 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. The Giants' run may end next week against the Eagles, but the foundation is now set. They're only a few pieces away from contention.

Vikings are who we thought

This team was never going anywhere in the playoffs - an 11-0 record in one-score games was a clear sign that the Vikings would be in for a rude awakening when the competition ramped up. Going out at home against the No. 6 seed is just confirmation of everything they appeared to be missing during the regular season. The defense couldn't do a thing to get off the field against a Giants offense that lacks any sort of big-time weapons at receiver, and the offense once again underperformed. The question now is how they improve from here. The Vikings have some work to do to even get under the salary cap, let alone create enough room to make meaningful additions, so a roster that already needs plenty of help could be losing some key pieces heading into the offseason.

McDaniel botches the clock

Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It was an accomplishment for the Dolphins to even be competitive in Buffalo with their third-string quarterback under center, but they had a real chance to pull off a stunner. Were it not for some bizarre clock management issues down the stretch, perhaps they would've gotten it done. Mike McDaniel explained postgame that the costly fourth-and-1 delay of game was a result of late substitutions due to the team believing it had a first down. But that doesn't excuse all the other times the Dolphins broke out of the huddle so late. Perhaps a more experienced quarterback than Skylar Thompson takes control in those situations, but this appears to have been a communication issue from the Dolphins' sideline.

Lamar's future unclear

It's starting to feel like Lamar Jackson may have played in his last game with the Ravens. Perhaps the two sides finally make progress in extension talks - deadlines tend to have that effect. But Lamar has every right to demand a deal that tops Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed $230 million. If the Ravens were going to do that, you'd think they'd have done so by now. And consecutive seasons where their star quarterback missed time down the stretch probably won't make them any more eager to pay up, even if it's clear that they should. This is going to create an interesting scenario in the offseason. The franchise tag is inevitable, but Lamar has no reason to play on the one-year tender. Could another team swoop in with multiple first-round picks and convince the Ravens to trade him away?

Bengals' OL taking hits

The year-over-year improvement from the Bengals' offensive line has been a major factor in this team being a better version of the one that went to the Super Bowl last season. A recent run of injuries is unfortunately threatening to compromise that. Cincinnati lost La'el Collins and Alex Cappa in back-to-back games to close out the regular season, and left tackle Jonah Williams exited Sunday's game against Baltimore with a knee injury. Burrow is a magician at extending plays, and he's much improved when it comes to working to his checkdowns. But potentially being without three starters up front is still a massive blow to the Bengals' offense, both in protection and in the run game. The coaching staff will have to find a way to adjust.

Stat of the week

Daniel Jones joined Lamar Jackson (2019) and Steve Young (1995) as the only players to have 300+ pass yards & 70+ rush yards in a single playoff game in NFL postseason history

- NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 16, 2023

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