NFL Playoff betting: Wild Card Weekend and Divisional opening lines

Wild Card Weekend was a profitable three days for us between our best bets in the AFC and NFC, our 7-5 record in player props, and a near-perfect round-robin anytime touchdown parlay that was good enough for a net gain of +19 units (+21.3 units overall).

The opening lines have tightened up in this week's divisional round as we have way more certainty regarding quarterbacks. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Dolphins and Ravens, whom the betting public was down on because of their quarterback situation, both covered.

With that increase in certainty this week, we aren't likely to see the big moves we saw last week, where the Bengals moved from -6 to -9.5 before settling just over a touchdown and the Bills went from -11 to -9 to as high as -14. Three of the four spreads opened Sunday night, while the Cowboys' win over the Buccaneers meant that a line for their game in San Francisco opened late Monday night. All four spreads have settled as of Tuesday afternoon.

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-7.5)
Bengals @ Bills (-5)
Cowboys @ 49ers (-4)

Using these lines, we can decipher how the market rates the remaining eight teams.

Playoff team power ratings

The ratings below are out of 100 and suggest the likelihood, as a percentage, of that team beating an average team on a neutral field. The market rating is an estimate based on recent point spreads, while the column furthest right is my own average rating for the team. If that rating is lower than the market's, it means I believe that team may be overrated. Conversely, if I'm higher on a team, I'd be more likely to back it in the playoffs.

TEAM	MARKET RATING	MY RATING
49ers	74	71
Chiefs	72	74
Bills	70	72
Eagles	66	63
Cowboys	64	60
Bengals	61	57
Giants	47	47
Jaguars	49	49

The Chiefs and Eagles come in rested after enjoying their well-earned bye. Their rating doesn't change, but bettors are asked to weigh how much having a rest advantage matters for the Chiefs over the Jaguars and the Eagles over the Giants, respectively. Jacksonville and New York arrive at the next round having taken decidedly different routes.

Trevor Lawrence eventually stopped throwing interceptions, but the short fields he gave the Chargers early make any boxscore analysis difficult. If someone from the future had told us that yards per play would be 5.6-4.6, the assumption would be that an under ticket would be safe. That said, whether you look at the Jaguars in their role of home underdogs last week or the 10-point spread when they played Kansas City in Week 11, Jacksonville's finally appropriately rated.

Meanwhile, the Giants were at full value for their win in Minnesota. However, given how much skepticism there has been about the Vikings and the ease with which New York went through Minnesota's defense, how impressive was it really? The Eagles were -7.5 at the Giants in Week 14; that line is the same this week even after a flip in home-field advantage. That would normally be a red flag, but the Giants were the best team against the spread all season, so maybe a rating that supports this 7.5-point spread is just the market finally catching up.

Curiously, Buffalo opened -3.5 over Cincinnati only to be quickly bet to -4 and eventually -5. Given that the Bills closed -2.5 on the road in the canceled Week 17 game, a flip in location would suggest something closer to -6.5. While the Bills looked average at best in edging the Dolphins, at least they didn't have anything happen to them structurally.

The Bengals had just as many problems with the Ravens but also lost a third starter on the offensive line in left tackle Jonah Williams. My respect for Joe Burrow is the reason why I won't downgrade the Bengals further.

The 49ers have seen a big jump in their rating. My rating has gone from being higher than the market's - triggering our bet on them against the Seahawks - to being lower as they're -4 at home to the Cowboys, who were just road favorites in the previous round. That boost is clearly based more on the second half of the 49ers' win last Saturday versus the first half. Meanwhile, the Cowboys took a small dip before their game in Tampa, with that spread coming off of the key number of -3 toward the Bucs. Although, expecting consecutive consistent games from Dallas seems like asking a lot.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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