NHL Monday best bets: Looking at the total in Toronto

Pearl Jam once sang, "It's all just inadvertent imitation, a pattern in all mankind." So, with our usual astute NHL handicapping All-Star taking his own break, you're stuck with analysis from a reasonable facsimile. Here, we'll usher you toward valuable hockey bets in lieu of the weekly betting guide.

The Maple Leafs can't be trusted as a big favorite, as was exemplified Saturday when they coughed up another two-goal lead to Montreal. However, the Leafs' metrics are good enough to support their moneyline price here, and I'd need +227 to consider backing the underdog Islanders.

Instead, we'll turn to the total. Ilya Sorokin leads the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) this season, but Ilya Samsonov has averaged +0.62 GSAx per game to Sorokin's +0.86. This means we've got a matchup of two top-five goaltenders on a per-game basis.

The fear is always that the Leafs will play a loose game, scoring with ease but also giving up a few more goals than you'd expect. However, coming off a loss, they should be a little more focused on playing a grinding, defensively responsible style, which the Isles are often up for.

Since the Christmas break, both teams have struggled to convert their even-strength high-danger chances (HDCs). The Islanders have 11 goals on 136 HDCs for just an 8% clip, which is well below the league average of 13%. But the Leafs have had the same issue, converting their 140 HDCs at just 9%. Maybe regression hits all at once Monday night, but between good goaltenders and bad recent scoring metrics, the under has to be the play.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-135)

Are the Panthers back?! Florida scored us a win Saturday, but we'll temper the enthusiasm given the team's 49% even-strength Expected Goal Share (XG%) in that game. That said, the Wild scored by going two-for-two on the power play and converting at six-on-five with the goalie pulled late.

A 100% power-play efficiency is an outlier, but it's also a decent sign that Florida was on the penalty kill just twice. Although the Panthers have recorded the most short-handed time on ice all season, they're in the middle of the pack in that category since Jan. 1.

As for the Rangers, they've regressed to the bottom third of the NHL in even-strength high-danger chance creation since the calendar turned to 2023. This is more in line with last season's metrics, but without the super-human performance by Igor Shesterkin.

Alex Lyon should get another start in net, and given how bad the Panthers' goaltenders have been this season, his slightly above-average play has been a revelation in back-to-back wins. Florida is live to make it three straight.

Pick: Panthers (+110)

Through two periods Saturday afternoon, we thought our shot on the underdog Ducks in Buffalo had a chance in a 3-3 game. Anaheim lost 6-3. However, we try to find ways to fade the Sabres as a big favorite - or against a team that won't allow their offense to bail them out - because of their goaltending situation.

The Stars' Jake Oettinger leads the NHL in GSAx since the Christmas break. It's expected that Buffalo will start Eric Comrie in the first game of a week-long road trip; his 3.67 goals against per game means it's less likely that the Sabres steal one. In lieu of laying a big price on the moneyline or hoping for a two-goal victory, we'll find the middle ground and back Dallas to win in regulation on the three-way line.

Pick: Stars to win in regulation (-110)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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