NHL Wednesday best bets: Maple Leafs to start fast in Matthews' return

Although there's a fairly juicy six-game slate on the docket for Wednesday night, many of those contests feature teams among the very worst in the league.

Rather than just picking games straight up, we'll get creative in how we attack the worst of the worst.

Let's get right to it.

The Toronto Maple Leafs laid somewhat of an egg Saturday night, dropping a home game against the league's lowest seed - the Columbus Blue Jackets.

They've had several days to chew on that dud of a performance, and I expect them to respond against the Chicago Blackhawks tonight.

All of the stars are aligning for a convincing Maple Leafs victory. They're playing host to a Blackhawks side that ranks 31st or 32nd in almost every key five-on-five metric over the last 10 games. Chicago is struggling mightily to generate chances and is giving up a ton of opportunities at the other end.

To make matters worse, the Blackhawks have Petr Mrazek between the pipes this evening. He owns a putrid .885 save percentage on the season and won only five games over 23 appearances.

He'll be in tough against a Toronto team that ranked first in high-danger chance generation over the past 10 games despite missing its best player in Auston Matthews for half of those contests. Matthews will return to the lineup against Chicago.

Backing the Leafs to win this game in regulation, or on the puck line, is attractive, but there isn't a ton of meat on that bone. Instead, we'll be playing them to win the first period.

Toronto is tied for eighth in first-period goals this season and is the much better team across the board. The Blackhawks sit dead last in first-period goals, have one of the league's worst goalies between the pipes, and are in the latter half of a road back-to-back.

The Leafs should have no problem getting the early jump - and seeing it through.

Bet: Leafs first period -0.5 (-120)

The Buffalo Sabres have dropped four consecutive games in regulation and now sit five points out of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Luckily, they're drawing the perfect opponent as they try to claw their way back up the standings.

While the Anaheim Ducks have won five of their last 10 games, they've controlled only 41.92% of the expected goal share at five-on-five during their "hot" streak. They've also conceded more goals in that game state than any other team in the league.

The Sabres possess one of the league's most threatening even-strength offenses - they rank sixth in scoring efficiency at five-on-five - and have more than enough talent to overwhelm the Ducks.

Anaheim is likely going to need a fantastic start from John Gibson to have any shot of hanging around in this game. That's not exactly likely to happen. Gibson has the raw talent to steal games, but his overall body of work has quietly been poor for several years now.

In fact, Gibson ranks sixth from last in goals saved above expected (minus-10.2). Even though the Ducks have tasked him with a difficult workload, he's still performed well under expectation.

This is a great spot for Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin and Co. to make some noise and get the Sabres back in the win column.

Bet: Sabres in regulation (-130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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