NHL weekend betting guide: Introducing the 4% Club
January and February in the NHL is a grind. Fresh legs are a thing of the past, and the urgency of a playoff push is still to come. The last few weeks have seen star players in and out of lineups. Cale Makar, Auston Matthews, Bo Horvat, Jack Hughes, Filip Forsberg, Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly, and Alex Ovechkin have all been removed from lineups for various reasons and, in some cases, added to others. That's required a quick shift in team valuations each gameday.
One of the most difficult elements for both novice and veteran bettors is trying to understand how much one player matters to his team's probability of winning an individual game.
Connor McDavid is headed for his third Hart Trophy - he's quite literally the league's most valuable player. He hasn't missed a game this season, so we don't have an up-to-date look at how moneylines shift in his absence and, in turn, how the Oilers' rating and win probability changes.
Using moneyline adjustments for when other stars have missed games as a starting point, and using on-ice metrics to determine how valuable a player is to their team's implied win probability (IWP), here's the list of the league's most valuable skaters.
| PLAYER | TEAM | IWP DIFF. |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 10% |
| Cale Makar | COL | 8% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | BUF | 7% |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | |
| Aaron Ekblad | FLA | 6% |
| Roman Josi | NSH | |
| Adam Fox | NYR | |
| Thomas Chabot | OTT | |
| Sidney Crosby | PIT | |
| Erik Karlsson | SJS | |
| Victor Hedman | TBL | |
| Jacob Chychrun | ARI | 5% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | |
| Tyson Barrie | EDM | |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | |
| Zach Hyman | EDM | |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | |
| Dougie Hamilton | NJD | |
| Jack Hughes | NJD | |
| Brady Tkachuk | OTT | |
| Nikita Kucherov | TBL | |
| Josh Morrissey | WPG | |
| Alex Ovechkin | WSH | |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | |
| John Tavares | TOR | |
| Quinn Hughes | VAN | |
| Elias Pettersson | VAN | |
| Tage Thompson | BUF | 4% |
| Sebastian Aho | CAR | |
| Brent Burns | CAR | |
| Rasmus Andersson | CGY | |
| Seth Jones | CHI | |
| Devon Toews | COL | |
| Miro Heiskanen | DAL | |
| Jason Robertson | DAL | |
| Dylan Larkin | DET | |
| Matthew Tkachuk | FLA | |
| Brandon Montour | FLA | |
| Drew Doughty | LAK | |
| Bo Horvat | NYI | |
| Chris Kreider | NYR | |
| Jake Guentzel | PIT | |
| Kris Letang | PIT | |
| Vince Dunn | SEA | |
| Steven Stamkos | TBL | |
| Brayden Point | TBL | |
| Mitch Marner | TOR | |
| Alex Pietrangelo | VGK | |
| Shea Theodore | VGK | |
| Mark Scheifele | WPG | |
| Kyle Connor | WPG | |
| John Carlson | WSH |
A lot of good players fall into the wider section of a bell curve, but the "4% Club" is reserved for players that drive goals for their team while also helping prevent them. Many players not on this list are hurt by being on teams that are too good - their absence for one game doesn't make as much of an impact as it would if they played for a weaker club - and in some other cases by being on teams that are so bad their presence can't make enough of a difference.
The recipeWe started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
The cheat sheetThere are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 24 | BUF@FLA | +208/-208 | BUF +251/FLA -199 |
| OTT@CAR | +220/-220 | OTT +267/CAR -210 | |
| MTL@PHI | +142/-142 | MTL +168/PHI -137 | |
| MIN@TOR | +221/-221 | MIN +269/TOR -211 | |
| LAK@NYI | +112/-112 | LAK +132/NYI -108 | |
| COL@WPG | +130/-130 | COL +153/WPG -125 | |
| Feb. 25 | EDM@CBJ | -160/+160 | EDM -154/CBJ +191 |
| NYR@WSH | +103/-103 | NYR +114/WSH +107 | |
| PIT@STL | -125/+125 | PIT -120/STL +147 | |
| BOS@VAN | -187/+187 | BOS -179/VAN +225 | |
| ANA@CAR | +529/-529 | ANA +741/CAR -492 | |
| OTT@MTL | -124/+124 | OTT -119/MTL +146 | |
| PHI@NJD | +213/-213 | PHI +257/NJD -203 | |
| TBL@DET | -166/+166 | TBL -160/DET +198 | |
| DAL@VGK | +112/-112 | DAL +131/VGK -107 | |
| CGY@COL | -143/+143 | CGY -138/COL +170 | |
| CHI@SJS | +214/-214 | CHI +259/SJS -205 | |
| Feb. 26 | WSH@BUF | -105/+105 | WSH +105/BUF +116 |
| CBJ@MIN | +237/-237 | CBJ +289/MIN -226 | |
| NYI@WPG | +132/-132 | NYI +156/WPG -127 | |
| LAK@NYR | +111/-111 | LAK +130/NYR -106 | |
| TBL@PIT | -127/+127 | TBL -122/PIT +150 | |
| NSH@ARI | -119/+119 | NSH -114/ARI +140 | |
| TOR@SEA | -149/+149 | TOR -143/SEA +177 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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