NHL weekday betting guide: True moneylines for every game

On Friday, we talked about the forwards and defensemen who matter most to a moneyline and an NHL team's implied win probability. Naturally, though, there's more to the player availability equation than just the skaters.

When it comes to your NHL cheat sheet (true MLs and price to bet), how are you adjusting for No. 1 vs. No. 2 goaltender.

Example today, NYI at WPG... there is an obvious difference between Hellebuyck starting vs. Dave Rittich.

- PickSixtySports (@PickSixtySports) February 26, 2023

Both the Jets and Lightning turned to their backup goaltenders, downgrading from Vezina Trophy winners to league-average replacements.

The short version of how I adjust for a backup goaltender: I don't.

Outside of Nashville and both New York teams, no club has a goaltender outperforming his crease mate at more than .4 goals saved above expectation per 60 minutes. Even the Bruins don't lose that much when Jeremy Swayman plays.

For two-thirds of the NHL, the designation of "No. 1 goalie" is largely nominal. Just ask the Alberta teams who they thought their starting goaltender was at the start of the season versus now.

My personal belief is that a team plays differently when a downgrade-backup is in net for one game since the players are aware that they don't have the starter to save the day. This can make up the half-goal difference. Also, the backup is well-rested and focused on making the most of their rare opportunity.

While I won't argue that having the better goaltender in net doesn't matter, the bigger issue is what it always is - the price, even if it seems like it matters less than in point spread-based sports.

The decision of whether or not to make a bet is always the bettors'. If a backup goaltender scares you off a bet, that's personal and understandable. I don't want to bet on Elvis Merzlikins, either. However, unless you have inside information on who's getting the call between the pipes that night, oddsmakers will have already made a pricing adjustment for you.

In fact, if they make a large adjustment to the moneyline because of a backup goaltender, that might actually create an opportunity to bet on the team resting its No. 1.

The Jets are 57.7% on the moneyline with Hellebuyck and are 9-6 (60%) with Rittich. While the Lightning have won 63.6% of their games with Vasilevskiy, they're also 9-6 on the moneyline with Elliott. The Predators are 23-21 with Juuse Saros and 6-7 without. Semyon Varlamov has a better moneyline record than Vezina candidate Ilya Sorokin.

While it didn't help Lightning and Jets' bettors Sunday - both got trounced - backing a team after the market overreacts to goalie news is probably a good idea long term.

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Note: Rasmus Dahlin is questionable this week; his importance to the Sabres would make them unbettable at their probable moneyline.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.