1.5-million new Ontario homes already within reach: planners’ study
New research by area planners suggests there are already enough new homes in Ontario's planning pipeline to hit government targets without building on Greenbelt lands in Hamilton or elsewhere.
Ontario has made a flurry of recent planning changes meant to create 1.5 million new homes by 2031, including urban boundary expansions, Greenbelt carve-outs and a new housing bill designed to fast-track development.
But a new survey of 15 Ontario municipalities, including Hamilton, shows more than a million homes were in the planning pipeline - and outside the Greenbelt - even before the provincial changes. And if you count planned new homes in cities and towns that were not surveyed, the total could exceed" that target.
Tackling Ontario's housing crunch doesn't boil down to land supply alone, said city planning director Steve Robichaud, who is also vice-chair of the Regional Planning Commissioners of Ontario that compiled the housing supply inventory.
It's not a supply issue. It's how do we make that supply happen or translate it into bricks and mortar?"
Hamilton's share of the 1,126,960 surveyed units is 29,394.
The figures spur new questions for a provincial government facing conflict of interest probes over its surprise move to open part of the Greenbelt to development - as well as a court challenge of an urban boundary expansion imposed by Housing Minister Steve Clark on Hamilton.
In an emailed response to Spectator questions about the survey, a spokesperson for Clark said lands removed from the Greenbelt are prime and ripe for development" and are expected to yield up to 50,000 new homes.
The statement also said the province supports intensification within existing urban areas, but we also need to make sure that there is sufficient lands available to accommodate the new homes and jobs our province needs."
Robichaud said much of the housing affordability discussion has focused on land supply, but the mix of homes - including apartments, townhouses and affordable units - are key to alleviating the crunch. (Last year, nearly 70 per cent of Hamilton housing starts were for multi-residential projects.)
As well, it's up to developers to start building once approvals are in hand and infrastructure is in place, he added. But the industry faces challenges, including a lack of skilled workers. So it becomes a much more complex problem than simply saying that it's too much regulatory red tape at the municipal level."
An upshot of recent provincial planning changes is that municipalities stand to generate less money through development charges to pay for sewage pipes, pumping stations and roads for new development, Robichaud said.
And if we don't have a mechanism to close that gap, then it may have an unintended consequence of delaying some projects from being able to come on-stream."
The province argued its statement said those changes are eliminating out-of-control municipal fees" on affordable and rental housing that is desperately needed."
The 29,394 Hamilton units identified in the survey are at various stages of the approvals pipeline," ranging from initial formal consultations, to planning committee nods and site-plan sign-offs, Robichaud noted.
But just because new homes are in the planning pipeline does not mean they are close to being built - or even that they are guaranteed to be built, said Mike Collins-Williams of the West End Home Builders Association.
Collins-Williams said he believes the province's decisive actions" on land supply and legislative planning changes will help get more housing built faster.
But he added the industry still faces a perfect storm" of factors - including inflation, labour shortages and ongoing politics around housing" - that are working against getting shovels in the ground.
Matthew Van Dongen is a reporter at The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com
Teviah Moro is a reporter at The Spectator. tmoro@thespec.com