NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for every game

The Oilers won in Boston on Thursday - something few teams have done this season. The Bruins are now 26-6 against the moneyline at TD Garden. Despite the gaudy home record, it wasn't a massive upset for Edmonton, with the Oilers widely available around +150 and eventually closing around +130 on the moneyline.

Going into the game with an 83.8% home win percentage would suggest that Boston would be priced at -520 against an average team. That's obviously absurd, which is why it's so impressive the Bruins have won that many home games this season. That they would break even at that kind of price is wild. If you had known the club would garner these kinds of results in Boston, you would've had a great year blindly betting on it each time.

However, what's happened in the past record-wise can't be directly applied to the next game. Why? Because what happens on the ice in-between goals matters. Amazingly, the Bruins aren't necessarily the best home team in the NHL this season. There are two clubs with both a better even-strength expected goal share and a high-danger chance share.

TEAM	XG%	HDC%
Hurricanes	61.7	62.7
Devils	58.1	60.5
Bruins	57.9	59.3

While no one is stingier on home ice, 13 teams have created more high-danger chances at five-on-five at home this season than the Bruins.

How could we have known Boston would be super profitable in its arena this campaign? Obviously, we couldn't.

From a betting standpoint, home-ice advantage isn't how much better you are than the rest of the league at home. It's really about how much better you are compared to yourself on the road.

The Bruins were 26-15 at home last season and 25-16 on the road. They're 23-8 on the road this campaign, which isn't far off from their home results. Their record in Boston isn't a product of playing in Beantown. It's a product of being good in general.

Now that we've given the Bruins the appropriate credit, the Oilers were still just +130 at close Thursday night. If you've been an ardent follower of the guide here, you may have noticed the numbers haven't been begging us to fade Boston much this season. That means we have an adequate rating of them relative to the market.

Thankfully, we haven't faded the Bruins, or we'd be getting battered by them in their run for the Presidents' Trophy.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
March 10	CHI@FLA	+308/-308	CHI +387/FLA -292
	ANA@CGY	+268/-268	ANA +332/CGY -255
March 11	DET@BOS	+241/-241	DET +295/BOS -230
	PHI@PIT	+171/-171	PHI +204/PIT -164
	NYR@BUF	-105/+105	NYR +105/BUF +117
	ARI@COL	+202/-202	ARI +243/COL -193
	WPG@FLA	+186/-186	WPG +223/FLA -178
	VGK@CAR	+199/-199	VGK +240/CAR -190
	NJD@MTL	-199/+199	NJD -190/MTL +240
	EDM@TOR	+119/-119	EDM +140/TOR -115
	CHI@TBL	+324/-324	CHI +411/TBL -307
	STL@CBJ	+105/-105	STL +116/CBJ +106
	WSH@NYI	+111/-111	WSH +130/NYI -106
	OTT@VAN	+115/-115	OTT +136/VAN -111
	DAL@SEA	-114/+114	DAL -109/SEA +134
	MIN@SJS	+112/-112	MIN +132/SJS -108
	NSH@LAK	+159/-159	NSH +189/LAK -153
March 12	BOS@DET	-168/+168	BOS -161/DET +200
	NYR@PIT	+130/-130	NYR +153/PIT -125
	CAR@NJD	+119/-119	CAR +140/NJD -114
	WPG@TBL	+170/-170	WPG +203/TBL -163
	VGK@STL	-136/+136	VGK -131/STL +161
	OTT@CGY	+182/-182	OTT +218/CGY -175
	MIN@ARI	-117/+117	MIN -112/ARI +137
	NSH@ANA	-109/+109	NSH +101/ANA +121

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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