NHL weekday betting guide: True moneylines for every game
For the Canucks and their fans, it's time to give up.
It's time to abandon the only thing that gave a lost season some hope - the chance to draft Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli - or whomever else we all talk ourselves into believing is the franchise-changer, for that matter.
Fourteen points ahead of the Blue Jackets and 11 points clear of the Blackhawks and Sharks, the Canucks getting a top-2 pick would require the type of lottery luck that they historically don't have.
The problem all along has been that the Canucks are too good to be bad. Sure, expected goal and high-danger chance shares of around 47% this season are certainly not good, but the team is just not bad enough to lay down against the likes of the Blue Jackets, Blackhawks, Coyotes, Ducks, and Canadiens.
Early in the season, the Canucks were good enough to get multi-goal leads, but they would repeatedly and historically blow them due to poor defensive play and goaltending.
They had a captain good enough to be sought after in Bo Horvat, and they ultimately got a three-pronged package from the Islanders.
Thatcher Demko was considered good before this season, then wasn't, and now has a very good +4.79 goals saved above expectation in just five games following his return. For all the embarrassment brought by their midseason coaching change, the Canucks are now playing, dare I say, well defensively.
How do we find a silver lining as the Canucks return to the worst theoretical place in sports - mediocrity? We bet on them to disappoint their fans by winning.
The market seemed unaware of the Canucks' 4-1 record in their last five games when they made Vancouver a home underdog to the Senators on Saturday. The Canucks cashed plus-money tickets with ease in a 5-2 win - their fourth straight victory.
That's the type of game where you'll find value on the Canucks the rest of the way - priced cheaply against teams with higher playoff hopes. With all 17 of their remaining games against Western Conference teams who are largely better-than-average at best, the Canucks look to be a profitable bet on a nightly basis. So even when they win more than they lose and finish on the brink of a top-10 draft pick, at least that silver lining will come in the form of dollars in your wallet.
"Ted Lasso" taught us that it's the hope that kills you, but winning bets will make you feel alive.
The recipeWe started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
The cheat sheetThere are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | COL@MTL | -154/+154 | COL -148/MTL +183 |
| BUF@TOR | +189/-189 | BUF +227/TOR -181 | |
| DAL@SEA | -112/+112 | DAL -108/SEA +132 | |
| March 14 | WSH@NYR | +112/-112 | WSH +132/NYR -108 |
| VGK@PHI | -134/+134 | VGK -128/PHI +158 | |
| MTL@PIT | +258/-258 | MTL +318/PIT -246 | |
| TBL@NJD | +126/-126 | TBL +149/NJD -121 | |
| WPG@CAR | +215/-215 | WPG +260/CAR -205 | |
| DET@NSH | +136/-136 | DET +161/NSH -131 | |
| BOS@CHI | -241/+241 | BOS -230/CHI +295 | |
| OTT@EDM | +141/-141 | OTT +166/EDM -135 | |
| CGY@ARI | -190/+190 | CGY -182/ARI +228 | |
| DAL@VAN | +102/-102 | DAL +113/VAN +109 | |
| CBJ@SJS | +230/-230 | CBJ +280/SJS -219 | |
| NYI@LAK | +135/-135 | NYI +160/LAK -130 | |
| March 15 | BUF@WSH | +123/-123 | BUF +144/WSH -118 |
| COL@TOR | +165/-165 | COL +196/TOR -158 | |
| MIN@STL | -108/+108 | MIN +102/STL +120 | |
| NYI@ANA | -118/+118 | NYI -113/ANA +139 | |
| March 16 | PIT@NYR | +106/-106 | PIT +117/NYR +105 |
| COL@OTT | +145/-145 | COL +172/OTT -139 | |
| TBL@NJD | +126/-126 | TBL +149/NJD -121 | |
| MTL@FLA | +260/-260 | MTL +321/FLA -248 | |
| CHI@NSH | +185/-185 | CHI +222/NSH -177 | |
| BOS@WPG | -135/+135 | BOS -129/WPG +159 | |
| DAL@EDM | +119/-119 | DAL +140/EDM -114 | |
| CGY@VGK | +106/-106 | CGY +117/VGK +104 | |
| VAN@ARI | -114/+114 | VAN -110/ARI +134 | |
| CBJ@LAK | +255/-255 | CBJ +314/LAK -243 | |
| SEA@SJS | +131/-131 | SEA +155/SJS -126 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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