Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 1st day of free agency

With legal tampering underway, several players have already made their intentions known by agreeing to deals with new teams.

Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position signings so far - and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big movesRaiders sign QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Contract: 3 years, $67.5 million

With Garoppolo heading to Las Vegas, one has to wonder what the Raiders were hoping to accomplish at quarterback when they cut ties with Derek Carr. The shift to Jimmy G seems like a lateral move in real life, and it might not change things much for fantasy either.

Garoppolo's best days came in Kyle Shanahan's well-schemed system surrounded by an impressive cast of skill-position talent. Josh McDaniels will also be looking for a game-manager of sorts, and despite some questions on the offensive line, the Raiders have a surprising number of playmakers surrounding their new passer, including Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow.

That's not likely enough to push an average fantasy quarterback into QB1 territory, but it makes Jimmy G a decent bet to produce top-24 stats at his position. By comparison, Carr was the QB22 in fantasy points per game last season, and Garoppolo should land in that range as well.

Adams, Jacobs, and Waller will all remain top-12 fantasy players at their positions - even though Adams' degree of difficulty will increase due to his age and Garoppolo's inefficiency as a downfield thrower. As long as McDaniels maintains a high-volume passing attack (the Raiders were 11th in attempts in 2022), there will be more than enough production to go around.

Renfrow could be a sneaky winner with this signing since Jimmy G's strengths lie in the short-to-intermediate area of the field. After a down year, put Renfrow back on your late-round sleepers list.

Garoppolo's 2023 projection (17 games): 4,219 passing yards, 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 37 carries, 58 rushing yards, 4 FL

Minor movesGiants re-sign RB Matt Breida

Breida hasn't been fantasy relevant since his days with the 49ers. Staying in New York at least puts him in the competition to be Saquon Barkley's immediate backup. However, this signing doesn't preclude the Giants from adding another back in free agency or the draft, which they almost certainly should do. He'll likely need multiple injuries in front of him on the depth chart in order to secure enough volume to earn a spot in fantasy lineups.

49ers sign QB Sam Darnold

With Brock Purdy undergoing surgery that could affect his availability for Week 1 and Trey Lance also working his way back from a season cut short by injury, the 49ers found a veteran to help fill out their QB room. Darnold has been a bust at almost every turn since being drafted third overall in 2018, but the Shanahan system can work wonders for a quarterback's productivity, especially on a roster as loaded as San Francisco's. While it's unclear if Darnold will get a legitimate chance to compete for the starting role, the uncertainty around Purdy and Lance could create a path for him to get on the field.

Vikings sign TE Josh Oliver

Minnesota solved its tight end problems by trading for T.J. Hockenson last season, but now it's adding depth at the position by bringing in Oliver. Barring a Hockenson injury, Oliver's main efforts will likely come as a blocker. The 25-year-old graded out as one of the best blocking tight ends last season, according to PFF.

Texans sign RB Mike Boone, QB Case Keenum

Houston has taken a high-volume approach to the offseason in recent years. So far, the Texans appear to be sticking to that plan with a string of lower-level signings, headlined by Boone and Keenum. Boone is a versatile running back who's capable of contributing as a pass-catching weapon, injury-replacement starter, and/or on special teams. If the Texans don't add anyone else to the backfield, he'll be a nice complementary piece alongside power-runner Dameon Pierce. Meanwhile, 35-year-old Keenum is a competent backup quarterback and should be a quality mentor for whatever rookie passer the team drafts second overall in April.

Dolphins sign QB Mike White

White was a brief waiver-wire star in fantasy last year, mostly due to a pair of 300-yard games. But injuries prevented him from closing out the season as the Jets' starter and robbed him of an opportunity to make his case to lead the team. Clearly, the Dolphins saw more than enough to make him their top backup behind Tua Tagovailoa. The move is also notable given Tua's durability concerns, which the team has acknowledged. Considering the weapons in Miami, White would be an intriguing fantasy waiver add once again if Tagovailoa is sidelined.

Broncos sign QB Jarrett Stidham

After a couple quality spot starts at the end of the season, there was a small chance that Stidham could have opened the 2023 campaign as the Raiders' starter. Any hope of that outcome disappeared once the team agreed to a deal with Garoppolo, so Stidham took a backup gig in Denver instead. While Russell Wilson and the Broncos' offense should bounce back under new head coach and offensive guru Sean Payton, Stidham is now in position to step in if Wilson continues to falter.

Falcons trade for TE Jonnu Smith

Smith is an excellent depth addition for the Falcons, especially considering his familiarity with head coach Arthur Smith dating back to their time together in Tennessee. However, his role in Atlanta will be similar to what we saw from him in New England, where he was the clear No. 2 tight end in the offense. Any concerns about the impact of this move on Kyle Pitts' fantasy outlook are overblown. It would take a Pitts injury for Smith to regain any fantasy value, and even in that instance, he would be more of a streaming option.

Chargers re-sign QB Easton Stick

With both of Justin Herbert's backups set to become free agents this week, it's notable the team moved quickly to bring back Stick. It's still possible that 36-year-old Chase Daniel could return to the club, but at the moment, Stick is in line to be directly behind Herbert on the depth chart. Unfortunately, Stick has barely seen the field since being drafted in the fifth round in 2019 and would be a risky replacement if Herbert were to miss time.

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