NHL Thursday best bets: Sabres to keep slim playoff hopes alive
We have one of the last monster slates of the season ahead of us Thursday night, with 28 of the league's 32 teams set to take the ice.
Let's take a look at the best way to attack the games.
Sabres (-115) @ Red Wings (-105)The Sabres are quietly heating up. They've gone 4-1-1 over the past six games, leaving the door ever so slightly open for a miracle run to the playoffs.
While the odds are still stacked against Buffalo, the team has a ceiling of 93 points. That's six clear of where the Panthers and Islanders are at, with those teams having four games remaining. If the Sabres take care of business the rest of the way, things could get very interesting.
As daunting of a task as that is, they only need to take things one step at a time, and the first step isn't a big one.
This Red Wings team is nothing more than mediocre, particularly on offense. Detroit ranks 28th in expected goals per 60 over the past 10 games at five-on-five, keeping company with clubs like the Coyotes, Canadiens, and Blackhawks.
The Red Wings struggle to generate scoring opportunities at a healthy clip. With top prospect Devon Levi likely to start for the Sabres, Detroit probably can't rely on outscoring its expected outputs. The team will need to generate plenty of volume, which is something it hasn't done all season.
I think the Sabres have a lot more firepower. They've overwhelmed the Red Wings in each and every meeting this season, piling up 18 goals and 115 shots over three games.
Detroit's goaltending has been iffy of late, with its trio of netminders combining to post a .884 save percentage. I'm not sure they'll hold up against an offense like Buffalo's.
With a more talented roster and a lot to play for, the Sabres should be able to grind out a big two points to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Bet: Sabres (-115)
Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 shots (-135)For one reason or another, players always seem to perform better against certain teams. The Canadiens are one of them for Ovechkin.
Ovechkin has scored 10 goals over his past 10 games against Montreal. He has consistently piled up shots in bulk, recording four or more each contest.
There's every reason to believe Ovechkin's success against the Habs will continue Thursday night.
They're a poor five-on-five team and rank in the bottom 10 in shot suppression over the past 10 games. They've also taken penalties at an above-average rate during that period, which is especially beneficial to a primary power-play shooting threat like Ovechkin.
With nothing else to play for, Ovechkin will no doubt be hoping to chip away at No. 99's goal scoring record over the final few games of the season. This is as good of a spot as any for him to do so.
Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-135)Robertson continues to be a priority shooting target on home ice. He's gone over his total in 24 of 38 games, good for a 63% success rate.
What I love about Robertson is we've seen no real dip in volume. His shot attempt average over the past 10 home dates (7.4) is directly in line with his outputs for the season (7.8).
I believe Robertson has a strong chance at a ceiling game against the Flyers. They give up plenty of shots at five-on-five, take a lot of penalties, and struggle most against Robertson's position; no team has conceded more shots per game to left-wingers over the past 10 contests.
Look for Robertson to capitalize on an advantageous matchup he doesn't necessarily need to find success.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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