NHL betting guide: A look at statistical history in search of a Stanley Cup champion

March Madness vacuums up the attention of the sports world in March, as college basketball took its turn in the spotlight. While pouring over your bracket, you have may have seen various trends when it comes to picking your last team standing. You may have heard about the high frequency with which the national champion finishes in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Sure enough, as wacky as the tournament was, UConn qualified on both parameters.

The NCAA Tournament is actually a good comparison for the Stanley Cup Playoffs because, while the one-and-done nature of the big dance creates madness, the nature of hockey creates similar randomness even with seven-game playoff series.

Which makes one think - is there a correlation between Stanley Cup winners and their regular season offensive and defensive efficiency?

If offensive efficiency is defined by high-danger chances created at even-strength and expected goals during 5-on-5 play, and defensive efficiency is defined by high-danger chances prevented at even-strength and expected goals allowed during 5-on-5 play, let's see where champions have finished in recent regular seasons.

Admittedly, things have gotten weird in recent history. 2021 saw the Lightning win after a season where they didn't use Nikita Kucherov during a 48-game schedule and only played a quarter of the league. That was one year after they won the Stanley Cup in the bubble - the playoffs started months after the regular season was halted due to COVID-19.

The Blues' 2019 Stanley Cup sits in betting lore. St. Louis was lingering at the bottom of the league at Christmas time, but they actually had some of the most balanced metrics of any recent champion.

Even the 2012 Kings - who barely made the playoffs with 95 points - did something very well.

Just two champions didn't finish a regular season in the top quarter of any metric. The 2018 Capitals were very close to being eliminated in the first round but ended up beating the expansion Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final. The 2011 Bruins turned a Vezina Trophy season from Tim Thomas into a Conn Smythe award for Thomas, but they were on the ropes in the first round, down 0-2 going to Montreal and eventually winning in overtime of game seven.

So, with merely a week remaining in the regular season, who are the teams (and their Stanley Cup odds) on pace for 99 points or more that sit in the top eight of either of our four categories above?

The Maple Leafs, Stars, and Kraken just barely qualify historically, while a run to a Stanley Cup for the Rangers and Golden Knights - along with whomever gets the final couple of playoff spots - would be an historical outlier.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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