Will construction ever begin on Hamilton’s off-again, on-again LRT project?

Are you wondering when - or if - construction on Hamilton's shovel-ready" light-rail transit project will finally begin?

If so, you're not alone.

The planned start of procurement for the off-again, on-again LRT project has been pushed down the track repeatedly since the latest $3.4-billion version of the rapid transit line was greenlit in 2021.

Persistent resident questions prompted Coun. John-Paul Danko to ask for public assurance" at a recent city LRT committee meeting that the project is moving ahead. During the (last election) campaign, that was the No. 1 question that I got: What's happening with LRT?"

The short answer that day: yes, LRT remains on track - but specific project timeline details are not expected to be publicly available before the next committee meeting in late May.

Given all the history, I think it's important to reassure people that it is happening," said the Mountain councillor.

That history" includes a roller-coaster ride of political LRT debate for over a decade before the original project was infamously cancelled over budget woes in 2019. The same 14-kilometre LRT line was resurrected in 2021 as a shovel-ready" project thanks to a budget boost to $3.4 billion shared by the Ontario and federal governments.

But nearly two years later, the actual shovelling schedule remains up in the air.

In early 2022, provincial transportation agency Metrolinx circulated a tentative timeline suggesting it could start procurement by vetting prospective project bidders in April of that year, with major construction starting in early 2024.

Later, the projected timeline to start procurement moved to January of this year. Now, it is expected in late spring or summer, according to Hamilton LRT office director Abdul Shaikh.

Officially, the city is still operating on the assumption major construction could start in 2024. But that might not be realistic if more than a year is needed to complete a tender process, award a contract and finish detailed design - an assumption built into Metrolinx's early project timeline.

Despite the lack of publicly visible progress, the project is gaining steam behind the scenes, said city planning general manager Jason Thorne. To me, it is and was a shovel-ready project, and it is moving much more quickly than if we were starting from scratch," he said in an interview.

Shaikh said more LRT information - and important debates - are coming this year, starting with updates on procurement, design and a long-awaited community benefits plan at a meeting May 26.

By July, Metrolinx is expected to present options to run the light-rail transit system - a historically controversial topic given local support for an HSR-run train versus a past provincial preference for private operation.

Metrolinx and the provincial Ministry of Transportation have been unable or unwilling in recent months to provide specific answers about project timelines or the budget in response to Spectator questions.

That said, there are a few reasons why the project may be moving more slowly than anticipated. For example:

Changing designs, changing expectations

LRT 2.0 is following the same Main-King-Queenston corridor as the original project and travelling the same 14-kilometre distance between the same end points of McMaster University and Eastgate Square.

But Metrolinx and the city are exploring as-yet-unspecified design refinements." Those design tweaks take time - but Thorne argued it is time well-spent, given Hamilton's changing priorities" around road safety and livable communities.

The updated LRT design must reflect recent, dramatic policy and streetscape changes, like a new downtown ban on big rigs and a planned conversion of Main Street to two-way traffic.

No more megaprojects?

Hamilton's first LRT project was shot down in 2019 over budget woes - but The Spectator later reported at least one consortium had already pulled out of bidding on the complex multi-year contract even before it was cancelled.

In February 2022, Metrolinx floated the idea of splitting years of LRT construction into smaller pieces - for example, contracting for underground infrastructure replacement first, then tendering rail and train work separately.

The agency conceded at the time working through those options would take extra time. So far, it has not publicly revealed its procurement strategy.

Inflation

Metrolinx acknowledged the ongoing challenge of accounting for pandemic inflation back in February 2022.

At the time, Metrolinx manager Kris Jacobson said the global project budget of $3.4 billion was still adequate - but that was months before inflation peaked at 8.1 per cent. We're aware of it, we monitor it, we do factor it into our costing, but it is changing fairly rapidly these days and it's affecting the entire market," he said.

The agency has since refused to divulge any updated project cost estimates in the name of protecting an eventual competitive bidding process.

But provincial auditor general Bonnie Lysyk noted in a report last year that Hamilton LRT cost estimates were revised three times between the resurrection of the project in 2021 and May of the next year.

In general, all big construction projects are dealing with inflationary pressures, said Michael Collins-Williams of the West End Home Builders' Association, who sits on the city's LRT subcommittee.

Whether you are building condos, public transit or hospitals, the cost pressures are a massive challenge," said Collins-Williams, who added his association members have reported year-over-year cost escalation on some projects of between 15 and 25 per cent.

So the budgetary pressures on a project like this? I don't know what the numbers are, but they're sure as heck not the same as they were (when LRT was approved.)"

Matthew Van Dongen is a transportation and environment reporter at The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com