Wild-Stars series preview: Betting by the numbers

Maybe if the former Minnesota-based NHL franchise faced the current Minnesota-based franchise more than just once since the league re-expanded to the Twin Cities, this series might have a little more juice to it. Arguably the eighth-most interesting first-round matchup, the Wild and Stars are lined far closer to a coin-flip than the teams' resumes seem to suggest.

Series odds

TEAM	GAME 1	SERIES	SERIES HANDICAP
Wild	+120	+120	+1.5 (-175)
Stars	-140	-140	-1.5 (+140)

The odds for both teams' Game 1 moneylines and series odds are shorter than you might expect given the Stars' roster is packed with familiar names with playoff success, while the Wild haven't won a series since 2015 and their star 40-goal scorer, Kirill Kaprizov, is just anonymous enough to go down the water slide in the Mall of America unrecognized.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

TEAM	SEASON	POST-ASB
Wild	+3%	+2%
Stars	+12%	+4%

The Wild have been steadily little more than an above-average NHL team this season. The Stars, meanwhile, started out with a rating that would have placed them among the league's best, but their collective play dipped over the course of the campaign. They turned up the heat late in the season, though, with six straight wins. And while that stretch came against five non-playoff teams, allowing an average of just six high-danger chances per game at five-on-five is still impressive.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

TEAM	XG%	HDC%	HDCV%	OPP. HDCV%
Wild	49.9	50.6	11.6	10.9
Stars	52.1	53.6	12.1	11.3

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The Wild are merely average at creating expected goals at five-on-five. Fortunately for Minnesota, only the Hurricanes surrendered fewer high-danger chances this season, and the Wilds' goaltenders have stopped opponents' quality scoring opportunities at a higher rate than most.

Goaltending matchup

PLAYER	GSAx/60 MIN.
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.02
Filip Gustavsson	0.64
Jake Oettinger	0.36

We've got a rare three-goalie listing here because the Wild have committed to a goaltending tandem this season and indicated they'll deploy that system to start the series in Dallas. Marc-Andre Fleury has been merely replacement level this season, whereas Filip Gustavsson has been excellent in a half season's worth of sample size. Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger has the reputation of a playoff performer after almost stealing the Stars a series win against the Flames last year.

Special teams

TEAM	PP%	PK%	PP+PK
Wild	21.4	82.0	103.4
Stars	25.0	83.5	108.5

The Stars have the special teams advantage, with a power play that features 40-goal scorer Jason Robertson, the big-bodied presence of Jamie Benn, master deflector Joe Pavelski, and quarterback Miro Heiskanen. They pair that top-five unit with a penalty kill that's third in the NHL at 83%.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

TEAM	NEUT. WIN PROB	GM 1/2/5/7	GM 3/4/6	SERIES PTB
Wild	46.1%	+156	+115	+174
Stars	53.9%	-127	+106	-141

At -140 or better, the Stars are a valuable bet for the series, but we'll need the Wild to get more attention in Game 1 before we look at Dallas there. That's due in part to a lack of commitment to who'll be starting in net for the Wild, which is a big reason why there may be some value in this series beyond the metrics.

Best bet

The Wild could use Fleury in Game 1, deciding it's best to first turn to the veteran on the road. Given that they've said they're sticking with the tandem system that they didn't stray from down the stretch when they fought (unsuccessfully) to win the Central division, I believe both Fleury and Gustavsson will each get a game in Dallas.

Gustavsson is clearly the better option, so any game Fleury starts will result in a drop in the Wild's rating. If the market doesn't reflect that drop - in Game 1 for example - then the Stars become more valuable than the numbers suggest. Conversely, a move from Fleury to Gustavsson could result in pricing that would make the Wild worth a play, particularly off a loss.

One other element not accounted for in the Wild's overall rating is the loss of Joel Eriksson Ek, which leaves Minnesota vulnerable up the middle against the Stars, who are deep at center.

This may set up as a relatively easy series for Dallas, and with a potential second-round meeting against the Kraken or banged-up Avalanche, the Stars could make another run to at least the Western Conference Final, and their potential Conn Smythe candidates are all at long-shot prices.

Game 1: Stars (-140) if Fleury is announced as starter
Series: Stars to win (-140)
Series: Stars -1.5 games (+140)
Futures: Stars to win West (+650 or better)
Conn Smythe: Jason Robertson (+4000), Jake Oettinger (+4000), Miro Heiskanen (100-1)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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