Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh all crave the labour vote. Here’s why the federal strike complicates that

OTTAWA-When NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh turned up in front of Parliament Hill Wednesday to join thousands of striking federal workers, the picket line all but turned into a party line.

After all, Singh has noted repeatedly in recent days, his party has always stood on the side of unions.

They deserve respect," Singh told reporters, more than half of his party's caucus behind him and strikers eagerly crowding around to snap photos.

So we're going to keep putting pressure on the government to deliver a respectful contract that understands the struggles these workers are going through."

But for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, the calculus of where to stand Wednesday was more complicated.

In the months since becoming leader, he's positioned his party as that which speaks for the working class, as opposed to what he calls the elite Liberals or costly NDP.

Polls suggest he has momentum, with union workers appearing poised to back the federal Conservatives similar to how they swung to the side of Premier Doug Ford in the last Ontario election.

But join striking public servants on the picket line? For Poilievre - whose party used back-to-work bills in government, routinely disparaged the public service and who was a fierce advocate for union-busting legislation - that might be going too far.

Could Liberals lose power?

Still, how Poilievre and Singh will navigate the historic strike now underway will be a test of their respective claims to be the so-called workers vote - and may also test the future of the Liberal government itself.

That upwards of 100,000 Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) workers are off the job follows a period last fall when the Liberals were raked over the coals for the shoddy state of service delivery: people were lining up for days to get passports and immigration backlogs were at historic levels, among other things.

From that situation emerged a Conservative catch phrase: everything feels broken."

As talks with the unions were underway last year, the subject of many a closed-door discussion at the Liberals' cabinet retreat was the labour landscape in front of them.

How would they survive the fallout from the fall, then navigate a strike?

How would negotiations with their workers impact talks with unions in other federally-regulated industries or efforts to get auto sector or oil and gas unions onside with their climate policy ambitions?

Recent budgets have been chock full of programs and money for workers in those sectors. In recent town halls, Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has made a point of visiting shop floors and union halls to make his case that his government has their back.

There's also the question of precedent: whatever deal they reach with the public sector could have an impact on private sector unions and those wage talks.

Treasury Board Minister Mona Fortier suggested Wednesday the government knows there are cascading implications.

I think it's important that we get to this wage offer that will not compromise what other jurisdictions are also working on and putting pressure on those jurisdictions and the private sector," she said.

So I think that we have the right path forward and we will, of course, work very hard to get to it."

Poilievre blames Trudeau

For a time Wednesday, the Conservatives weren't even sure what path they were going to take - it's the Liberals' problem, not ours, insiders said.

But eventually they landed on a talking point of exactly that shape.

How will the prime minister fix the government he broke?" Poilievre asked Trudeau during question period.

The NDP's Singh jumped ahead to the next potential political pressure point: back-to-work legislation, which could be used by Ottawa to end the strike and impose an arbitration process or contract on both parties.

The NDP repeatedly pressed the Liberals during question period for a commitment they wouldn't introduce such a bill, accusing them of being Conservative in spirit if they do.

Singh also said despite his party's governing agreement with the Liberals - which could see the New Democrats prop up the minority Liberals until 2025 - the NDP were not looped into the negotiations.

Early on in the formation of that agreement, the NDP had made it clear that even if they were partners with the Liberals, they'd never - ever - support any decision to bring in a back-to-work law.

That's led to speculation over whether the governing deal might dissolve should the Liberals move forward with back-to-work legislation, particularly if the government treats the vote as a confidence matter.

But Jennifer Howard, Singh's chief of staff, quashed some of that conjecture Wednesday.

If introducing the law becomes a confidence vote, the NDP, as Singh has already indicated, will vote against it.

If no other party wants to vote with them, then I guess we're in an election," Howard said.

But if there's a scenario in which the NDP votes against the law and another opposition party supports it - thereby allowing the Liberal government to survive - the deal could still emerge unscathed, Howard told the Star.

What's in the agreement commits us to supporting budgets, in exchange for certain things, and on other matters of confidence, commits us to be clear and forthright about what we would do and we have fulfilled that on our end," Howard said.

Howard, who worked as an executive director for PSAC before joining Singh's office, also took a shot at Poilievre's failure to connect with workers on the first day of the strike.

If you're a party that claims to support workers, to believe that people who do the work deserve fairness and respect - which is a good wage and good benefits - then you have to support their ability to fight for those things," she said.

The last time the Liberals used back-to-work legislation - to end a Montreal port workers strike in 2021 - the Tories backed the bill, over the objections of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois.

Would the party do the same under Poilievre? All they would say Wednesday is that they aren't the ones in charge.

We are not at the negotiating table," Treasury Board critic Stephanie Kusie said.

This is in the hands of the incompetent Justin Trudeau and his team, and we really hope that he resolves this strike soon."

Stephanie Levitz is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @StephanieLevitz

Raisa Patel is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @R_SPatel