Stanley Cup Eastern Conference betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 2s

Eight Game 2s spread across two nights featured some good and some bad for our in-series plays after each opener, with the Panthers, Stars, and Maple Leafs bouncing back from losses whose underlying metrics suggested better results might be ahead.

As series change sites this weekend, it's worth a closer look at the first segment of each series. We'll start in the Eastern Conference, with four more in the West.

Game 3: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

(xG: expected goals; HDC: high-danger chances; HDG: high-danger goals)

The Panthers' regular-season metrics suggested they might be able to compete with the Bruins, but a 63% expected goals share is above and beyond. Predictably, Linus Ullmark has been up to the task against the Panthers' high-danger chances (HDC), but five goals against on non-high-danger chances are a surprise. That's undermined the Bruins' two power-play goals and shorthanded goal to the Panthers' zero special-teams scores.

Is there a bet?

If we didn't know what logos these numbers were associated with, we'd jump at the chance to back a team that's returning home after driving most of the play on the road and due for a special-teams breakthrough. With two chances to win at a plus-money price at home, the Panthers are worth a pair of bets this weekend in hopes they win at least one and also cash earlier tickets on over 5.5 games or +2.5 games.

Game 3: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

We thought the Islanders might be up for a better effort in Game 2, and they were. They just forgot that you don't want to give up a goal off a puck your own team swatted, give up another goal on a bank shot off your goalie's head, and then get high-sticked in front of two officials without a call. Otherwise, a 14-5 advantage in high-danger chances bodes well for their return home, even if it'll be tough to climb out of an 0-2 hole against the Hurricanes.

With 42 total even-strength HDC in two games, the Islanders are supposed to have the goaltending advantage in a more wide-open game, but Antti Raanta has stopped 30 of 31 high-danger chances at all strengths.

Is there a bet?

We were hoping to get an underdog price with the Isles back home, but the market pushed them out to -120. With the metrics above due for a correction on the scoreboard, hopefully that comes one game late. The Isles are still worth backing in Game 3, Game 4, and at +2.5 series games.

Game 3: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

On the scoreboard, it looked like the Maple Leafs flipped the script on the Lightning in Game 2. But answering a 7-3 loss with a 7-2 win had more to do with converting 3-of-12 HDC at even strength and going 2-of-6 on the power play - including one in the first minute - instead of giving up four power-play goals and an early goal against like they did in Game 1.

Is there a bet?

With positions on the Leafs to win the series - and to do so in six games or fewer - there's no need to back them at a shorter price than we'd hoped for in Game 3. However, it changes the calculus if Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak aren't ready to go. If you haven't committed on this series going forward, the lopsided even-strength metrics and the Leafs' good road record make them an inviting bet against a thin defense, but Ilya Samsonov still needs to do better than stopping four of six high-danger chances at even strength.

Game 3: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

The Devils are the only team that dropped its first two home games, and you have to feel for them. After a coming-out season, the young Devils got matched up with their local rivals and are getting thoroughly Ranger'd.

As usual, the metrics don't love New York, but sure enough, Igor Shesterkin is 20-for-20 against the Devils' even-strength high-danger chances and leads the league in playoff goals saved above expectation so far. Making matters worse, Vitek Vanecek has been the worst goalie of the playoffs this side of Marc-Andre Fleury.

You could see it coming from outside the arena, but the Rangers' 3-of-18 converted HDC is above the league average of one in every eight, and scoring on 4-of-10 power plays is above expectations as well. That's just their recipe for winning.

Is there a bet?

With no sign of either goaltender changing their stripes as the scene shifts to Broadway, coin-flip metrics between the two creases aren't enough to justify putting more money toward New Jersey.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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