Fantasy: NFL draft analysis and projections from Round 1
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theScore's Justin Boone provided instant breakdowns of every fantasy-relevant selection in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers (1st)Star potential:
2023 projection (17 starts): 3,307 passing yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs
158 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 FUMs
The Panthers finally found their quarterback.
Though Young may not have the elite ceiling of past QBs picked first overall, he projects to be a strong long-term NFL starter with a high floor.
Carolina prepared for his arrival by completely remaking its depth chart at the skill positions, including signing running back Miles Sanders, receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, as well as tight end Hayden Hurst. That group won't be confused for an All-Star squad, but it'll benefit from Young being under center.
While growing pains are inevitable for rookie passers, the presence of head coach Frank Reich should help aid Young's development. Consider him a low-end QB2 in fantasy, with room to outperform that ranking if he finds his rhythm early.
This is an exciting time for the Panthers' organization, and fantasy managers might find value in this offense. Sanders deserves to be in the conversation as a top-24 fantasy back, with Chark being an intriguing late-round option in this year's drafts.
Fantasy stock up: DJ Chark, Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall, Hayden Hurst, Miles Sanders
Fantasy stock down: Andy Dalton
Star potential:
2023 projection (17 starts): 3,124 passing yards, 18 TDs, 13 INTs
126 rushing yards, 4 FUMs
After weeks of chaotic speculation, the Texans ultimately held on to the No. 2 pick and add a much-needed quarterback, and then traded up to acquire the third overall selection to arguably draft the class' top defensive player in Will Anderson.
Stroud has faced the most criticism among the class' high-end passing prospects, but he's been the second QB in our rankings throughout this process. In the end, the NFL valued him the same way.
He joins a Texans franchise in the middle of a complete rebuild, with a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a below-average crop of offensive weapons.
With Houston giving up its other early picks in the move up for Anderson, fantasy managers should keep Year 1 expectations for Stroud in check. It may take time before the team can upgrade around him.
Stroud will enter the year as a low-end QB2, ranked behind fellow rookie Young.
However, similar to the situation in Carolina, there could be sneaky fantasy value for a couple of Texans now that they lack the ammunition to bring in a premier rookie pass-catching prospect.
It's an offense worth monitoring now that Stroud gives them hope for the future.
Fantasy stock up: C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz
Fantasy stock down: Davis Mills
Star potential:
2023 projection (12 starts): 2,217 passing yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs
463 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 4 FUMs
Unlike the first two quarterbacks off the board, Richardson may require more time before he's ready to start. Gardner Minshew's familiarity with Shane Steichen's system makes him the perfect bridge QB - if the Colts take their time with their new rookie passer.
Once Richardson is ready, he offers the most upside of any quarterback in this year's class given his incredible physical traits and dual-threat ability.
We'll learn more about Indy's plan for his development over the next few months, but know this: When Richardson does start, he'll be an immediate fantasy factor.
We've seen quarterbacks will his skill set frequently crack the top-12 weekly fantasy finishers thanks to their rushing production. so don't be surprised if he makes his way into fantasy lineups in the second half of the season.
Fantasy stock up: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods
Fantasy stock down: Gardner Minshew
Star potential:
2023 projection: 252 carries, 1,238 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 1 FUM
49 receptions, 396 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Just when you thought the hype around Robinson couldn't get any louder, the 21-year-old star back lands in a Falcons offense that was built around a surprisingly effective rushing attack last season.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, who was the Titans' offensive coordinator before arriving in Atlanta, now has his version of Derrick Henry to build around.
Robinson is as good a running back prospect we've ever seen and will immediately challenge for a place inside the top-five fantasy backs. That sound you hear is fantasy managers with the 1.01 in dynasty drafts rejoicing.
While there are still many questions around sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder's ability to succeed in the pros, the Falcons' front office is doing everything it can to surround him with top-shelf talent. Robinson, receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts were all top-10 picks over the last three years.
Fantasy stock up: Bijan Robinson, Desmond Ridder
Fantasy stock down: Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson
Star potential:
2023 projection: 144 carries, 730 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 2 FUMs
51 receptions, 408 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Gibbs was expected to go in the first round, but not in the top 12, and not to a Lions offense already equipped with David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift.
In fact, the rookie has many similar qualities to Swift and projects to be his replacement. Rumblings of Swift falling out of favor within the organization must be true and it shouldn't shock anyone if the 2020 second-round pick is dealt before the end of this draft. Our projection for Gibbs is taking this scenario into account.
Using this kind of draft capital on a running back assures heavy involvement in the offense, which also spells trouble for Montgomery's fantasy stock. However, we could see Gibbs and Montgomery coexist as a new version of the Swift-Jamaal Williams tandem the team deployed a year ago. Gibbs would be the game-breaking talent with an excellent pass-catching profile, while Montgomery gains the tough yards and boosts his fantasy value with goal-line work.
At the moment, we're valuing Gibbs as a low-end RB2 and Montgomery not far behind - and also assuming Swift is traded before the season. It's possible this could be positive for Swift if he gets a fresh start with a different club in 2023.
Fantasy stock up: None
Fantasy stock down: Jahmyr Gibbs, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery
Star potential:
2023 projection: 59 receptions, 767 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The Seahawks stopped Smith-Njigba's brief slide, selecting him 20th overall and adding him to a strong receiving corps that already features DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
While Metcalf's role should mostly remain unchanged (outside of perhaps giving up a few targets), this pick could represent Lockett's future replacement, as he turns 31 this year.
For JSN, this is far from an ideal landing spot, since he'll begin his career fighting for targets with two established wideouts. In fact, this will cause all three receivers to drop a bit in my next redraft rankings update. But Smith-Njigba's dynasty outlook remains unchanged: he's capable of challenging for the league lead in receptions at some point in his career.
For now, Metcalf should be treated as a mid- to high-end fantasy WR2, Lockett as a fringe WR2/WR3, and JSN as an upside WR4 who may require an injury to one of the veterans in order to max out his potential in 2023.
The real winner of this move is quarterback Geno Smith, given the impressive array of pass-catchers now at his disposal. Smith is a strong fantasy QB2 with low-end QB1 potential.
Fantasy stock up: Geno Smith
Fantasy stock down: Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant
Star potential:
2023 projection: 52 receptions, 641 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The Chargers followed the Seahawks' lead by selecting a rookie wideout to join their two star veteran receivers, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
Johnston is a big-bodied weapon, but he offers far more after-catch ability than most players his size. He'll provide another outlet for Justin Herbert, making the Chargers' passing attack one of the most loaded in the league.
The TCU product is also injury insurance for Williams and Allen, who missed a combined 11 games last year.
Unless the Bolts plan on moving on from Allen, which seems unlikely for 2023, former third receiver Josh Palmer could be relegated to a much smaller role in the offense in the short term.
Fantasy managers shouldn't fret too much about Johnston joining the mix, but much like the Seattle group, his presence will take a little value off the top of the current starters. That leaves Williams and Allen as fringe WR2s, with Johnston down in the WR5 range.
The outlook for dynasty is much shinier, with Allen entering his age-31 season and Williams turning 29 later this year. It's possible Johnston could be Herbert's top target within a couple seasons.
Fantasy stock up: Justin Herbert
Fantasy stock down: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer
Star potential:
2023 projection: 49 receptions, 622 receiving yards, 3 TDs
The Ravens' offense is a bit of a mystery heading into 2023 due to their coordinator change, going from the run-heavy ways of Greg Roman to likely a more balanced attack under Todd Monken.
That should help increase Lamar Jackson's pass attempts, though whether it's enough to support his growing cast of pass-catchers remains to be seen. But he has to be happy about Baltimore adding Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Flowers to a group that includes Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.
Jackson could go nuclear if his numbers through the air begin to rival his fantasy production on the ground.
However, it's too early to tell how the pecking order will shake down. Andrews will continue to be a big part of the offense and remains a surefire fantasy TE1, but the target competition will widen the gap between him and Travis Kelce.
Meanwhile, the receivers will battle it out, and the end result is hard to project at the moment. What we do know: This offense is about to find new life with an improved group and Monken at the helm.
In short: You want Ravens on your fantasy squad this season.
Fantasy stock up: Lamar Jackson
Fantasy stock down: Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr.
Star potential:
2023 projection: 67 receptions, 853 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Addison was the fourth receiver off the board, but his landing spot could offer the most fantasy value in Year 1.
The Vikings have a huge hole in their receiving corps with Adam Thielen gone and Addison will step in as Justin Jefferson's new sidekick.
While Addison's athletic testing left something to be desired, he's a versatile option who wins with quality route-running. He's a perfect fit for the Vikings at this spot and fantasy managers should take notice.
It's an unfortunate turn of events for K.J. Osborn, who flashed promise whenever he started. Osborn will continue to be the No. 3 wideout in the offense and will be a waiver wire darling once again if an injury occurs ahead of him on the depth chart.
Fantasy stock up: Jordan Addison, Kirk Cousins
Fantasy stock down: K.J. Osborn
Star potential:
2023 projection: 47 receptions, 601 receiving yards, 4 TDs
The trend of rookie tight ends taking multiple seasons to get acclimated to the pros has been reversed in recent years as several first-year players at the position have made their mark right away.
Kincaid was my favorite pass-catching tight end in an outstanding 2023 class and he'll help the Bills solve their issues at slot receiver by earning plenty of snaps from that area. He gives Buffalo another flexible chess piece it can move around the formation and find mismatches with.
It's unlikely Kincaid becomes a weekly fantasy starter right away, but he should be on your radar as a TE2 with immense upside. There's a non-zero chance Kincaid emerges over the next couple years as the No. 2 target for Josh Allen.
Sadly, this is a death knell for Dawson Knox's fantasy stock, as he'll likely slide into more of a blocking role as a part-time contributor.
Fantasy stock up: Dalton Kincaid, Josh Allen
Fantasy stock down: Dawson Knox
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