NHL Monday best bets: Running with the Devils

The road teams pulled off a pair of Sunday upsets, eliminating last year's Stanley Cup champion and the most successful regular-season team of all time - in their own buildings.

Home-ice advantage hasn't been worth much in this year's playoffs. Of the seven teams to advance thus far, six secured a second-round berth on the road.

Will that trend continue Monday? Let's take a closer look by honing in on a couple of best bets for the day's lone Game 7.

Rangers (+100) @ Devils (-120)

The Devils laid eggs in the opening two games of the series. They couldn't use their speed at five-on-five and were overly focused on physical play; the result was a lot of unnecessary penalties that the Rangers quickly exploited.

Lindy Ruff pulled a couple of his penalty-prone depth pieces out of the lineup for Game 3 - most notably Miles Wood and Brendan Smith - and the Devils have looked like a completely different team since.

New Jersey controlled 53% of the expected goals in Game 3 and gave up very little defensively en route to its first win of the series. The team flexed its muscles even further in Game 4 with an expected goal share above 72%.

The Devils followed that up with another strong effort in Game 5, posting a near-60 expected goal percentage despite holding a lead for most of the game. That put them in the driver's seat for the later stages of the series.

Although the Rangers fared better in a bounce-back Game 6 win, it wasn't until the Devils started parading to the box - and gave up a goal - that New York found its footing. New Jersey dominated at five-on-five in the first period of that game, winning the high-danger chance battle 7-0.

Overall, the Devils have largely been the better team at full strength. Their inability to stay out of the box is a major reason the Rangers have three wins.

The good news for New Jersey is that the refs tend to put the whistles away in Game 7. The officials managing Sunday's contest in Colorado, for example, called but one minor penalty across 60 minutes of play.

Though that may be an extreme example, don't expect a ton of special-teams action in this matchup. Even-strength play figures to be the deciding factor, and the Devils have been the better team in that regard all series - and all season.

Look for New Jersey to control the run of play, and expect some of its star players - perhaps aided by more favorable matchups at home - to bust out of their respective shooting slumps en route to a Game 7 victory.

Bet: Devils (-120)

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots (-135)

Meier doesn't have a goal - or even a point - in this series, but it certainly isn't for lack of opportunity.

The power winger has 46 shot attempts at five-on-five through six games, ranking behind only Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead. They've been good shots, too, with Meier leading the postseason in high-danger chances.

Given his ability to create dangerous shots and the Devils' need for offense in a do-or-die game, Meier should get plenty of ice time Monday. That's especially true considering he's one of the NHL's most efficient even-strength shot generators, and special teams will likely be less prevalent in this elimination contest.

That makes five-on-five play that much more important, and no one in this series has been better than Meier when it comes to generating shots in such situations.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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