Kraken-Stars series preview: Betting by the numbers
A second-year franchise knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions in their arena, and it was the second-most significant surprise of Sunday's Game 7 doubleheader. Blame the Panthers (maybe the Bruins?) or the Golden Knights for ruining expansion expectations, but the Seattle Kraken taking down the Avalanche wasn't all that shocking in the betting markets. In fact, I'm a little disappointed they couldn't close it out a game sooner.
After a Game 1 loss opened the door to press our bets on the Stars, Dallas got it done against the Wild, eventually doing all their bettors could have asked. However, this is exactly the problem when looking at the core betting markets for their second-round series with Seattle.
Series odds| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | +150 | +160 | +1.5 (-130) |
| Stars | -175 | -190 | -1.5 (+100) |
Whoa! Whether it's the Kraken being treated harsher than the Wild despite proving their worth against Colorado or the Stars being treated similarly to the Avs, these prices disparage a good road team.
RatingsUsing primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL squad. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).
| TEAM | SEASON | POST-ASB | ROUND 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | +1% | -3% | +5% |
| Stars | +12% | +4% | +8% |
Seattle brought its best in Round 1 after largely playing like a below-average team down the stretch of the regular season. Befitting a series ending with a one-goal game in Game 7, the Kraken played 50/50 with Colorado. The Stars were only about 52% even-strength play drivers against the Wild, which is actually slightly disappointing given their pre-series price.
Advanced metrics at even strength (Regular season)
XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate
| TEAM | XG% | HDC% | HDCV% | OPP. HDCV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | 52.4 | 48.6 | 14.9 | 13.8 |
| Stars | 51.6 | 49.7 | 13.5 | 10.4 |
*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%
The Kraken had worse conversion rates, both for and against, than they did during the regular season while also having a sub-50% XG share at even-strength, and they beat Colorado anyway.
Goaltending matchup (Regular season)
| PLAYER | GSAx/60 MIN |
|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer | 0.14 |
| Jake Oettinger | 0.36 |
Both Philipp Grubauer and Jake Oettinger stepped up their game from the regular season and improved as each first-round series moved along, finishing with a better-than-half-goal saved above expectation per 60 minutes.
The usual guess about which goaltender is going to play better in advance of a series would still likely be Oettinger, but it's just that - a guess. Something just as stable as matchups like Igor Shesterkin-Akira Schmid, Ilya Sorokin-Antti Raanta, Connor Hellebuyck-Laurent Brossoit, Andrei Vasilevskiy-Ilya Samsonov, and Anybody-Linus Ullmark, all of which saw the latter outplayed by their opponent in a short sample size.
Special teams (Regular season)
| TEAM | PP% | PK% | PP+PK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | 19.8 | 76.7 | 96.5 |
| Stars | 25.0 | 83.5 | 108.5 |
Not surprisingly, the Kraken didn't do much on the power play against Colorado, but it was a pleasant surprise that they killed all but two of the Avalanche's 18 power plays and even scored a shorthanded goal. Meanwhile, Dallas managed six more goals in special-team situations than Minnesota, gaining one score per game.
Moneyline betting guideIf you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
| TEAM | NEUT. WIN PROB | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken | 46.7% | +146 | +117 | +162 |
| Stars | 53.3% | -119 | +105 | -132 |
Depending on where and when you look, the Kraken are either just barely a value bet at +165 for the series or just shy of one at +160. The same goes for the moneyline in Game 1 around a price of +150.
Best betsIf I was casually picking a team to win, I'd go with the Stars. Plus, I'm invested in their success as Dallas was the lone team we backed in the futures market. But in the context of one series, the Stars are slightly overpriced here.
If you're invested in Dallas, you can probably sit this one out, at least until seeing a game or two. Otherwise, a worthwhile compromise is to bet Seattle to push the series longer than the market would have you believe.
Series: Over 5.5 games (-180) or Kraken +1.5 (-130)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.